First, here is my prediction:
Final popular vote prediction: Romney 50.5%, Obama 48.5%
Final Electoral College prediction: Romney 291, Obama 247
I believe there are only 8 true tossup states that will decide this election. Here is my prediction for each of them:
1. Virginia - 51% Romney, 48% Obama
2. Ohio - 50.5% Romney, 48.5% Obama
3. Colorado - 50.5% Romney, 48.5% Obama
4. Iowa - 50% Romney, 49% Obama
5. Wisconsin - 50% Romney, 49% Obama
6. New Hampshire - 50% Obama, 49% Romney
7. Pennsylvania - 50.5% Obama, 48.5% Romney
8. Nevada - 51% Obama, 47.5% Romney
The one I am least sure about is Wisconsin -- changed it at the very last minute from Democrat to Republican.
In addition, I have 2 states classified as Leans Republican:
1. Florida - 52% Romney, 47% Obama
2. North Carolina - 53% Romney, 46% Obama
And 4 states classified as Leans Democrat:
1. Minnesota - 51.5% Obama, 47% Romney
2. Michigan - 52% Obama, 47% Romney
3. New Mexico - 53% Obama, 46% Romney
4. Oregon - 53% Obama, 45% Romney
All other states I believe are safely in one camp or the other and will go for either Obama or Romney by double digits.
The next question is why I am picking Mitt Romney to win when conventional wisdom clearly seems to favor Barack Obama. The primary reason for why Obama is favored, of course, is due to very favorable polling for him at the state level. The Real Clear Politics average of polls is showing Obama ahead in all the swing states, with the exception of Florida (and North Carolina if you count that as a swing state). Also, while Mitt had a clear lead in the national poll average for most of October, Obama gained significantly in the past week in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy and now leads slightly in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls as well. So why would I pick Romney to win, when a clear majority of the polls seem to indicate that he will lose, possibly badly?
The first thing to understand is that this year is not 2008 anymore. The political landscape has shifted dramatically. Perhaps the most dramatic indication of this is the massive survey of national party identification that Rasmussen does each election year. In calculating this party identification, Rasmussen surveys 15,000 likely voters nationwide, so it is a truly massive poll (more than 10 times bigger than even the largest national head-to-head election polls). In 2008, Rasmussen found a 7 point advantage for Democrats, which ended up being very close to the final margin of victory for Obama. In 2004 and 2010 they actually found small advantages for Democrats (+3 for Democrats in 2010), even though Republicans ended up performing extremely well in both elections. This October, they found a 5.8% advantage for the Republicans, which a stunning turnaround for the GOP and an extremely favorable indication for the election. And Rasmussen is not alone. Gallup did a similar survey of national party identification and also found a 1 point Republican advantage (and 3 points when you factor in voters who lean toward one party or the other). This data is especially extraordinary when you factor in that there has never been a presidential election in the modern era in which the Republicans have had a party identification advantage on Election Day. The closest they have ever come was in 2004, when the party identification was even between Republicans and Democrats.
Of course, we have many other proofs that this year will be dramatically different from 2008. The enthusiasm for the Republicans is off the charts and significantly higher than the enthusiasm for the Democrats. Polls have picked this up by showing the Republicans have a higher interest in the election and are more certain about voting. Polls have also showed that those who strongly disapprove of Obama's job performance significantly outnumber those who strongly approve of his performance. This difference in enthusiasm is also evidenced by much larger and more enthusiastic crowds for Romney compared to Obama. This all feels like 2008 in reverse. Peggy Noonan commented on the Republican passion bubbling under the surface in this election in her excellent column here. Concern about Democratic turnout is doubtless what has led Obama to campaign in Democratic strongholds like Madison, WI and Boulder, CO in the final week of the campaign.
And, there is the evidence of the demeanor of the candidates and the campaigns. Romney has seemed relaxed and confident and stayed largely positive in his campaign message, while Obama has seemed angry and his campaign ads have been overwhelmingly negative. He was even caught telling his supporters at a recent Ohio rally to vote for revenge, while Romney countered by urging supporters to vote for love of country. In the last presidential debate, the difference in demeanor between the two candidates clearly showed that Romney believed he was ahead and Obama believed he was behind. Some of the Obama campaign's tactics, such as that creepy Lena Dunham "My First Time" ad, seem to be the actions of a desperate campaign, not a confident one.
And then, of course, there is the early voting data. We can't know for sure who people are voting for, of course, but we can discern trends relating to partisan turnout. And the data in all the swing states indicates a huge improvement for the GOP compared to 2008. In Ohio, there has been a more than 260,000 vote swing away from the Democrats and toward the Republicans in early voting turnout. There has been a percentage swing toward the GOP in early voting in Florida and North Carolina that looks likely to overwhelm Obama's narrow win margin in both states from 2008. Democrats lead big in early voting in Iowa, as they always do, but the percentage advantage for the Democrats is actually slightly less than it was in 2004 when Bush carried the state. Early voting turnout is down significantly in key Democratic strongholds in Virginia this year compared with 2008. Republicans have about a 2 point lead in early voting in Colorado this year, compared with a Democratic lead four years ago. There is not early voting in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, but absentee balloting has looked very favorable to the GOP. Even in Nevada, the GOP has improved significantly since 2008, even though it looks like Obama will still carry the state. Most surprisingly, a recent poll from Gallup showed Republicans actually leading the early vote nationally by 6 points, which is incredible when you consider that most of Obama's national margin in 2008 came from early voting.
Even when you look at current national polling, Gallup and Rasmussen both show a one point lead for Romney, with Obama at 48%. Not a good place for an incumbent to be. The latest CNN poll oversampled Democrats by 11 points, but still showed the race a tie with a 22 point advantage for Romney with independents. The latest ABC/Washington Post poll had Obama up three, but its poll oversampled Democrats by 6. I think a fair reading of these national polls indicates a Romney advantage and slight momentum back in his direction (after a week of Obama gains). Remember that Romney had a steady and significant 3-6 point lead in both Gallup and Rasmussen for the week or two before the hurricane, with sizable advantages with independents. The hurricane gave Obama a clear bounce, but I don't think it fundamentally changed the race. Will independents, who have been negative about Obama for three years, suddenly reverse themselves and vote for Obama simply due his looking presidential for a couple of days in a hurricane a few days before the election? I find it hard to believe, but I guess I can't completely rule it out.
What about the state polls? Well, some of them are very questionable in my mind -- either online polls or polls done by Democratic agenda pollsters like Public Policy Polling. Zogby has been largely discredited as a pollster, and Gravis came out of nowhere this year and has no track record. Most of these state pollsters are assuming the electorate will be very similar to 2008, with large oversamplings of Democrats. Some of these state polls have shown Obama with larger leads in Ohio and Florida than his 2008 margin! Marist and Quinnipiac have been especially guilty of this -- the Marist pollster said straight up in an interview that he is assuming a 2008 electorate. I think many of these polls are a case of garbage in, garbage out. Their results are inaccurate because they are making inaccurate assumptions about the electorate.
I won't deny that this election looks to be quite close and that either Obama or Romney could easily win. But I keep coming back to the fundamentals of this election. Fundamentally, most Americans believe the country is on the wrong track. Overwhelmingly voters consider the economy to be the most important issue in this election, and every poll shows that voters favor Romney over Obama on this issue. No matter how many ads about abortion and contraception Obama runs, the election is not going to be about those issues for most voters. I think, in the end, the big issues do not favor Obama and that will cause late-deciding voters to either break for Romney or sit out the election. And I am encouraged that much smarter political gurus like Michael Barone, Karl Rove, and Jay Cost largely agree with my view of this election.
In short, I'm putting my faith in the American electorate to make the rational decision. Maybe I'm letting my political biases get in the way of objectivity. We'll all know in less than 24 hours (hopefully)....
Showing posts with label political predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label political predictions. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Final Presidential & Senate Predictions
I have updated my Senate & Electoral College maps with my final election predictions. You can click on the updated links on the left side of the blog to see the maps.
For the U.S. Senate, I am predicting a net pickup of 2 seats for the GOP, which brings them to 49 seats. Democrats will also have 49 seats plus 2 liberal leaning independents who will likely caucus with their party (I am considering those two independents as Democrats for purposes of this analysis). This is a disappointing prediction for me, since for much of the year the Republicans seemed to be in a good position to take control of the Senate. There are a number of tossup states that I have currently leaning toward the Democrats that the GOP could conceivably win if they have an unexpectedly strong Election Day, however, so control of the Senate is not completely out of reach at this point.
At this point, the GOP seems likely to lose two seats in the Northeast. One, the open seat in Maine, was almost a foregone conclusion when Republican incumbent Olympia Snowe announced her retirement and popular former governor and liberal Independent Angus King jumped into the race. King is expected to easily defeat both Republican and Democratic opponents. The other Republican seat in jeopardy is in Massachusetts, where Scott Brown seems to be slightly behind Democrat Elizabeth Warren. Brown is surprisingly well-liked in liberal Massachusetts and has positioned himself as a moderate, but I fear that the large Democratic turnout for Obama this year will be too much for him to overcome. This race is still a tossup though, which means it could go either way.
These two losses will be offset (in my view) by four Republican pickups of Democratic seats in the rest of the country. The easiest pickup will be in conservative Nebraska, where Deb Fischer should easily defeat former Democratic senator Bob Kerrey to replace retiring Senator Ben Nelson. Despite Kerrey's previous successes, he is far too liberal for the state. A second pickup should come in North Dakota, where Democrat Kent Conrad is retiring. Democrat Heidi Heitkamp has run a surprisingly strong race and has stayed close in the polls, but Republican Rick Berg, who currently represents the entire state in the House of Representatives, now seems likely to win (although he will run behind Romney in the state). A third pickup is the open seat race in Wisconsin, where former GOP Governor Tommy Thompson and Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin are vying to replace retiring Democrat Herb Kohl. This is a close race, and Baldwin was leading in the polls for a few weeks after Thompson won a contentious four-way primary, but Thompson now seems to be consolidating a lead. Baldwin is one of the most left-wing members of the House and out of step with the state. The fourth pickup for the GOP should come in Montana, where I predict that Republican Denny Rehberg will defeat sitting Democratic senator Jon Tester. Polls show a close race, but Rehberg has already won statewide several times and will be aided by a strong performance by Romney at the top of the ticket in the state.
I also believe the Republicans will hold onto three competitive seats of their own in Indiana, Nevada, and Arizona. Indiana is the one I am least sure about. Republican Richard Mourdock, who defeated incumbent Senator Richard Lugar in the GOP primary earlier this year, was widely expected to defeat Democrat Joe Donnelly until he made an alleged gaffe regarding abortion in the case of rape during a debate. Since then, a couple of polls have shown Donnelly ahead, although still well under 50% with a large number of undecideds. I suspect that many of those undecided voters are conservatives who will come back to Mourdock in the end, especially with Romney and GOP gubernatorial candidate Mike Pence winning the state by wide margins. In Nevada, Republican Dean Heller, an appointed incumbent, is leading in the polls over scandal-tarnished Democrat Shelley Berkley and should hang on to win despite the state's increasingly Democratic leanings. And in Arizona, conservative congressman Jeff Flake should win by a few points over Democrat Richard Carmona to replace retiring GOP Senator Jon Kyl. This is a race that has probably never been as close as some of the pundits have seemed to think.
I am also predicting that the Democrats will hold on to 9 of their own vulnerable seats, including 5 incumbents and 4 open seats. The most disappointing of all of these races is the one in Missouri, where it looks like deeply unpopular Senator Claire McCaskill will hold on to her seat due to a mindnumbingly stupid statement by her GOP challenger Todd Akin regarding pregnancies resulting from rape. Akin still seems to be closer in the polls than I would have expected, but the libertarian candidate in the race is polling between 5 and 10% in some polls and I would guess McCaskill will survive with less than 50% of the vote. Democrat Sherrod Brown is another far-left senator who is out of step with his conservative leaning state of Ohio, but he appears to have a slight edge over GOP candidate Josh Mandel. If massive Republican turnout propels Romney to a strong win there, Mandel might have a chance. In Pennsylvania, freshman Democratic Senator Bob Casey, Jr. was thought to be safe for most of this election cycle, but Republican self-funder Tom Smith has unexpectedly surged in the polls and made things interesting. The state has also gotten some last minute attention from Romney in the last couple of weeks, but given Pennsylvania's Democratic leanings both Romney and Smith are underdogs at this point. In Florida, Democratic Senator Bill Nelson, once thought to be in serious trouble, now looks clearly favored to win a 3rd term over Republican Connie Mack IV, who has run a disappointing campaign. Even more likely to win is Michigan Democrat Debbie Stabenow, who is polling strongly against Republican Pete Hoekstra.
Of the Democrats' four vulnerable open seats, by the far the toughest one is in Virginia, where former governors Tim Kaine and George Allen have been in a neck-and-neck battle to capture the seat of retiring Democrat Jim Webb, who defeated Allen in 2006. Most polls have been showing Allen running at least two or three points behind Romney in Virginia, and my best guess is that Kaine squeaks this race out. Democrats look to be in much better shape in their other three competitive open seats, all of which are being fought on friendly turf. In Connecticut, Linda McMahon has spent tens of millions of her own money but appears likely to lose to Democrat Chris Murphy, who stated in a debate that he believes that human life begins at birth. Moderate Republicans Heather Wilson of New Mexico and Linda Lingle of Hawaii were both thought to be top-tier candidates but have not been able to overcome the Democratic tilt of their states.
Tomorrow morning, I hope to provide my rationale for picking Mitt Romney to win the presidential race.
For the U.S. Senate, I am predicting a net pickup of 2 seats for the GOP, which brings them to 49 seats. Democrats will also have 49 seats plus 2 liberal leaning independents who will likely caucus with their party (I am considering those two independents as Democrats for purposes of this analysis). This is a disappointing prediction for me, since for much of the year the Republicans seemed to be in a good position to take control of the Senate. There are a number of tossup states that I have currently leaning toward the Democrats that the GOP could conceivably win if they have an unexpectedly strong Election Day, however, so control of the Senate is not completely out of reach at this point.
At this point, the GOP seems likely to lose two seats in the Northeast. One, the open seat in Maine, was almost a foregone conclusion when Republican incumbent Olympia Snowe announced her retirement and popular former governor and liberal Independent Angus King jumped into the race. King is expected to easily defeat both Republican and Democratic opponents. The other Republican seat in jeopardy is in Massachusetts, where Scott Brown seems to be slightly behind Democrat Elizabeth Warren. Brown is surprisingly well-liked in liberal Massachusetts and has positioned himself as a moderate, but I fear that the large Democratic turnout for Obama this year will be too much for him to overcome. This race is still a tossup though, which means it could go either way.
These two losses will be offset (in my view) by four Republican pickups of Democratic seats in the rest of the country. The easiest pickup will be in conservative Nebraska, where Deb Fischer should easily defeat former Democratic senator Bob Kerrey to replace retiring Senator Ben Nelson. Despite Kerrey's previous successes, he is far too liberal for the state. A second pickup should come in North Dakota, where Democrat Kent Conrad is retiring. Democrat Heidi Heitkamp has run a surprisingly strong race and has stayed close in the polls, but Republican Rick Berg, who currently represents the entire state in the House of Representatives, now seems likely to win (although he will run behind Romney in the state). A third pickup is the open seat race in Wisconsin, where former GOP Governor Tommy Thompson and Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin are vying to replace retiring Democrat Herb Kohl. This is a close race, and Baldwin was leading in the polls for a few weeks after Thompson won a contentious four-way primary, but Thompson now seems to be consolidating a lead. Baldwin is one of the most left-wing members of the House and out of step with the state. The fourth pickup for the GOP should come in Montana, where I predict that Republican Denny Rehberg will defeat sitting Democratic senator Jon Tester. Polls show a close race, but Rehberg has already won statewide several times and will be aided by a strong performance by Romney at the top of the ticket in the state.
I also believe the Republicans will hold onto three competitive seats of their own in Indiana, Nevada, and Arizona. Indiana is the one I am least sure about. Republican Richard Mourdock, who defeated incumbent Senator Richard Lugar in the GOP primary earlier this year, was widely expected to defeat Democrat Joe Donnelly until he made an alleged gaffe regarding abortion in the case of rape during a debate. Since then, a couple of polls have shown Donnelly ahead, although still well under 50% with a large number of undecideds. I suspect that many of those undecided voters are conservatives who will come back to Mourdock in the end, especially with Romney and GOP gubernatorial candidate Mike Pence winning the state by wide margins. In Nevada, Republican Dean Heller, an appointed incumbent, is leading in the polls over scandal-tarnished Democrat Shelley Berkley and should hang on to win despite the state's increasingly Democratic leanings. And in Arizona, conservative congressman Jeff Flake should win by a few points over Democrat Richard Carmona to replace retiring GOP Senator Jon Kyl. This is a race that has probably never been as close as some of the pundits have seemed to think.
I am also predicting that the Democrats will hold on to 9 of their own vulnerable seats, including 5 incumbents and 4 open seats. The most disappointing of all of these races is the one in Missouri, where it looks like deeply unpopular Senator Claire McCaskill will hold on to her seat due to a mindnumbingly stupid statement by her GOP challenger Todd Akin regarding pregnancies resulting from rape. Akin still seems to be closer in the polls than I would have expected, but the libertarian candidate in the race is polling between 5 and 10% in some polls and I would guess McCaskill will survive with less than 50% of the vote. Democrat Sherrod Brown is another far-left senator who is out of step with his conservative leaning state of Ohio, but he appears to have a slight edge over GOP candidate Josh Mandel. If massive Republican turnout propels Romney to a strong win there, Mandel might have a chance. In Pennsylvania, freshman Democratic Senator Bob Casey, Jr. was thought to be safe for most of this election cycle, but Republican self-funder Tom Smith has unexpectedly surged in the polls and made things interesting. The state has also gotten some last minute attention from Romney in the last couple of weeks, but given Pennsylvania's Democratic leanings both Romney and Smith are underdogs at this point. In Florida, Democratic Senator Bill Nelson, once thought to be in serious trouble, now looks clearly favored to win a 3rd term over Republican Connie Mack IV, who has run a disappointing campaign. Even more likely to win is Michigan Democrat Debbie Stabenow, who is polling strongly against Republican Pete Hoekstra.
Of the Democrats' four vulnerable open seats, by the far the toughest one is in Virginia, where former governors Tim Kaine and George Allen have been in a neck-and-neck battle to capture the seat of retiring Democrat Jim Webb, who defeated Allen in 2006. Most polls have been showing Allen running at least two or three points behind Romney in Virginia, and my best guess is that Kaine squeaks this race out. Democrats look to be in much better shape in their other three competitive open seats, all of which are being fought on friendly turf. In Connecticut, Linda McMahon has spent tens of millions of her own money but appears likely to lose to Democrat Chris Murphy, who stated in a debate that he believes that human life begins at birth. Moderate Republicans Heather Wilson of New Mexico and Linda Lingle of Hawaii were both thought to be top-tier candidates but have not been able to overcome the Democratic tilt of their states.
Tomorrow morning, I hope to provide my rationale for picking Mitt Romney to win the presidential race.
Sunday, November 4, 2012
My U.S. House Predictions
Time to begin making predictions for the 2012 elections! My prediction for the U.S. House is for the Republicans, surprisingly, to gain 4 seats. My predicted partisan breakdown for the 2013-2015 House of Representatives is 245 Republicans and 190 Democrats.
Here are the details of my prediction. If a district is "safe" or "likely," that means I am certain or fairly certain that it will go to a particular party, probably by a comfortable margin. If a district "leans" toward a particular party, that means I believe that it is competitive but favors one party or the other. "Tossup" districts feature highly competitive races which could go to either party on election night.
Safe or Likely Republican: 215 seats
Includes 6 currently held Democratic seats - Democratic incumbent Larry Kissell of North Carolina, 1 Democratic open seat in Arkansas, 1 Democratic open seat in Indiana, 2 Democratic open seats in North Carolina, and 1 Democratic open seat in Oklahoma.
Leans Republican: 15 seats
Includes one currently held GOP seat - that of Republican incumbent Roscoe Bartlett.
The good news is that, regardless of whether or not Barack Obama is reelected, the Republicans are virtually certain to retain a big majority in the House of Representatives. This means that if they have enough backbone to do so, they should be able to limit the amount of damage that Obama does to the country over the next four years in the event that he is reelected (which I am not predicting by the way).
Senate and Electoral College predictions to follow soon....
Here are the details of my prediction. If a district is "safe" or "likely," that means I am certain or fairly certain that it will go to a particular party, probably by a comfortable margin. If a district "leans" toward a particular party, that means I believe that it is competitive but favors one party or the other. "Tossup" districts feature highly competitive races which could go to either party on election night.
Safe or Likely Republican: 215 seats
Includes 6 currently held Democratic seats - Democratic incumbent Larry Kissell of North Carolina, 1 Democratic open seat in Arkansas, 1 Democratic open seat in Indiana, 2 Democratic open seats in North Carolina, and 1 Democratic open seat in Oklahoma.
Leans Republican: 15 seats
- Colorado 3 - GOP incumbent Scott Tipton reelected
- Florida 10 - GOP incumbent Daniel Webster reelected
- Florida 18 - GOP incumbent Allen West reelected
- Iowa 3 - Combined district; GOP incumbent Tom Latham defeats Dem incumbent Leonard Boswell
- Iowa 4 - GOP incumbent Steve King reelected
- Massachusetts 6 - Democratic incumbent John Tierney loses to Republican Richard Tisei
- Michigan 11 - GOP open seat; Republican Kerry Bentivolio wins
- Minnesota 6 - GOP incumbent Michele Bachmann reelected
- Nevada 3 - GOP incumbent Joe Heck reelected
- New York 18 - GOP incumbent Nan Hayworth reelected
- New York 19 - GOP incumbent Chris Gibson reelected
- New York 27 - Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul loses to Republican Chris Collins
- Ohio 6 - GOP incumbent Bill Johnson reelected
- Utah 4 - Democratic incumbent Jim Matheson loses to Republican Mia Love
- Wisconsin 7 - GOP incumbent Sean Duffy reelected
- Arizona 1 - GOP open seat; Republican Jonathan Paton wins
- California 7 - GOP incumbent Dan Lungren reelected
- California 10 - GOP incumbent Jeff Dunham reelected
- California 36 - GOP incumbent Mary Bono Mack reelected
- California 52 - GOP incumbent Brian Bilbray reelected
- Colorado 6 - GOP incumbent Mike Coffman reelected
- Illinois 10 - GOP incumbent Bob Dold reelected
- Illinois 13 - GOP open seat; Republican Rodney Davis wins
- Michigan 1 - GOP incumbent Dan Benishek reelected
- New Hampshire 1 - GOP incumbent Frank Guinta reelected
- Nevada 4 - New district; Republican Danny Tarkanian wins
- Ohio 16 - Combined district; GOP incumbent Jim Renacci defeats Dem incumbent Betty Sutton
- Pennsylvania 12 - Democratic incumbent Mark Critz loses to Republican Keith Rothfus
- Tennessee 4 - GOP incumbent Scott DesJarlais reelected
- Texas 23 - GOP incumbent Quico Canseco reelected
- California 9 - Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney reelected
- California 24 - Democratic incumbent Lois Capps reelected
- California 26 - GOP open seat; Democrat Julia Brownley wins
- Connecticut 5 - Democratic open seat; Democrat Elizabeth Esty wins
- Georgia 12 - Democratic incumbent John Barrow reelected
- Illinois 11 - GOP incumbent Judy Biggert loses to Democrat Bill Foster
- Illinois 12 - Democratic open seat; Democrat Bill Enyart wins
- Illinois 17 - GOP incumbent Bobby Schilling loses to Democrat Cheri Bustos
- Kentucky 6 - Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler reelected
- Minnesota 8 - GOP incumbent Chip Cravaack loses to Democrat Rick Nolan
- New Hampshire 2 - GOP incumbent Charles Bass loses to Democrat Ann McLane Kuster
- New York 1 - Democratic incumbent Tim Bishop reelected
- New York 21 - Democratic incumbent Bill Owens reelected
- New York 24 - GOP incumbent Ann Marie Buerkle loses to Democrat Dan Maffei
- North Carolina 7 - Democratic incumbent Mike McIntyre reelected
- Rhode Island 1 - Democratic incumbent David Cicilline reelected
- Arizona 2 - Democratic incumbent Ron Barber reelected
- Arizona 9 - New district; Democrat Kyrsten Sinema wins
- California 41 - New district; Democrat Mark Takano wins
- Florida 26 - GOP incumbent David Rivera loses to Democrat Joe Garcia
- Illinois 8 - GOP incumbent Joe Walsh loses to Democrat Tammy Duckworth
- New York 25 - Democratic incumbent Louise Slaughter reelected
Includes one currently held GOP seat - that of Republican incumbent Roscoe Bartlett.
The good news is that, regardless of whether or not Barack Obama is reelected, the Republicans are virtually certain to retain a big majority in the House of Representatives. This means that if they have enough backbone to do so, they should be able to limit the amount of damage that Obama does to the country over the next four years in the event that he is reelected (which I am not predicting by the way).
Senate and Electoral College predictions to follow soon....
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Presidential Election Predictions
The 2012 election season is starting to heat up, and I have once again prepared my predictions for the outcome of the presidential election. Obviously, it's still very early, and I will be updating my predictions map periodically over the next several months. I have also made preliminary predictions for the U.S. Senate races, but these are even more subject to change because in some cases the nominees have not even been chosen yet. At some point I will make predictions for the 2012 governor's races as well, and possibly the U.S. House races.
Here are the links:
Presidential Electoral College Predictions
U.S. Senate Predictions
UPDATE: I have now added links to my presidential, Senate, and governor election predictions on the left side of the blog. As I update my predictions over the next few months, I will update these links as well so they will stay current. So check back now and then for changes!
Here are the links:
Presidential Electoral College Predictions
U.S. Senate Predictions
UPDATE: I have now added links to my presidential, Senate, and governor election predictions on the left side of the blog. As I update my predictions over the next few months, I will update these links as well so they will stay current. So check back now and then for changes!
Monday, November 2, 2009
Election 2009
I know that some of my readers may not be that interested -- but I'm a political junkie and I can't let an election pass without making my predictions about the results. So here goes....
1. Virginia. This is the easiest one to predict. The Republican candidate for governor, Bob McDonnell, has run a very strong campaign and looks to be cruising to an easy victory over Democrat Creigh Deeds. Every poll taken over the past two weeks has shown McDonnell with a double-digit lead over Deeds, ranging from 10 points (Research 2000) to 19 points (Survey USA). Polls also show that the level of excitement and enthusiasm is much higher for McDonnell than for Deeds. In an off-year election, this will likely mean that McDonnell outperforms the polls -- energized conservatives will turn out in large numbers, while depressed Democrats are less likely to vote. I expect McDonnell will end up winning by at least 15 or 16 points, and maybe by as much as 20 points.
There are other races in Virginia as well, and Republicans should also fare well in those races. It seems likely that the GOP will win both the Lieutenant Governor & Attorney General races by comfortable margins. If McDonnell wins by double-digits, he will also sweep other down-ballot Republican candidates for the state legislature to victory. The GOP seems poised to pick up 4 or 5 seats in the House of Delegates -- and maybe even more.
Why this Republican sweep in Virginia? Remember, this once-solid Republican state has been trending Democratic in recent years, and Obama carried it by a significant margin just last year. Some of the blame for the strong swing back to the GOP this year has to go to Creigh Deeds, who was hardly a strong candidate. Deeds ran a relentlessly negative campaign and failed to present a positive agenda to the voters. He stumbled over his words in debates and interviews and flip-flopped badly on numerous issues. But I think the bigger reason for McDonnell's huge victory is widespread dissatisfaction and even anger against the hard-left agenda of Obama and congressional Democrats. Deeds' shortcomings as a candidate may explain why he is losing, but it by itself does not account for the huge margin of loss. Why are Republicans so energized? Why are so many moderates and independents supporting McDonnell? The reason is that they are dissatisfied with Democratic leadership in Virginia and Washington DC and want a change.
McDonnell's win is something worth celebrating. He, along with his fellow-Republican candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general, is a true conservative who has fought hard for the pro-life cause and for traditional family values. He is a strong believer in individual freedom, limited government, and lower taxes. And he is a gracious candidate who reaches out to moderates.
2. New Jersey. This state's governor's race is much harder to predict because it is much closer than Virginia's. Up until a couple of days ago, I thought Democrat Jon Corzine was going to win this race. But it does look like the GOP candidate Chris Christie has a bit of momentum right now. The most recent polls have shown him slightly ahead and gaining ground, and it does seem like late-deciding voters are unlikely to vote for the highly unpopular incumbent Corzine.
I am very reluctant to pick Christie as the winner though, because the Democratic organization in New Jersey is so strong. No Republican has won any state-wide race here since 1997 when Christie Todd Whitman, a liberal Republican, was narrowly re-elected governor. Corruption and dirty tricks are very common here, and labor unions and political bosses have their way of getting "their people" to the polls, legally or otherwise. The Democrats are launching a huge get-out-the-vote effort on behalf of Corzine, and Obama was in the state yesterday campaigning. Corzine has outspent Christie by about 3 to 1, and much of that money has been spent on nasty personal attacks designed to increase Christie's negatives. Even with all that, however, Corzine continues to have extremely high negatives -- close to 60%.
I am very hesitantly picking Christie to squeak out a win -- probably by one or two points -- over Corzine, with independent Chris Daggett finishing a very distant third with no more than 5 or 6 percent of the vote. The Democratic ground game and party machinery will be worth at least a couple of points on election day, but I now think that Christie's support among independents and a strong turnout of angry, motivated conservatives will be enough to put him over the top. I do not expect Republicans to gain much, if anything, in the NJ state legislature.
Christie is not a perfect candidate who has not presented a lot of positive ideas, and it's unlikely he will be able to accomplish much as governor with a heavily Democratic legislature working against him. Still, he is more conservative than the typical New Jersey Republican, and his victory is likely to have symbolic significance this year. Obama has spent a lot of time in New Jersey lately and is expending a lot of political capital on a Corzine win. If Corzine were to lose in one of the most Democratic states in the country, it would be a big embarrassment for Obama and could be interpreted as a repudiation of his agenda. Also, it would mean a GOP sweep of the 2009 governors' elections, which would give the Republican momentum going into the 2010 elections and might scare some moderate Democrats who are on the fence about ObamaCare.
3. NY-23 Congressional Race. This is a special election for a U.S. Congress seat in upstate New York that was vacated when the Republican congressman who occupied it for 16 years resigned from Congress to take a post in the Obama administration. I posted earlier about how the Republican party chose liberal state assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava as their nominee, and conservatives revolted and rallied around the Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman. For awhile, this looked to be a very interesting three-way race. Then, Scozzafava began to fade in the polls as more and more Republicans and independents began to defect to support Hoffman. On Saturday, Scozzafava quit the race and endorsed the Democrat, Bill Owens.
There has been quite a bit of polling done on this race, but polling is notoriously inaccurate for congressional races, so it's hard to know how much the numbers can be relied on. The two most recent polls are showing Hoffman leading Owens, but one of them is showing Hoffman with only a five point lead with nearly 20% of voters undecided.
It is hard to know how much of an impact Scozzafava's endorsement of Owens will have on the race. It seems likely to me that more of her supporters will vote for Owens than for Hoffman, and a lot of liberal organizations are pouring money into Owens' campaign in the final days. Still, conservatives are energized and are likely to turn out in large numbers to vote for Hoffman. Considering that turnout is likely to be low and that this is a conservative-leaning district that has a history of voting for Republicans, I think it is reasonable to pick Hoffman as the winner. But Owens may have some momentum coming out of the weekend, so I'm guessing this election will also be close. I'm guessing that Hoffman wins by 3 or 4 points, but I'm hardly sure about this prediction.
4. Other Races. There are a couple of other races happening this year as well. In the New York City mayoral race, Republican incumbent Michael Bloomberg looks likely to win a 3rd term, although his Democratic opponent is making it fairly competitive. And there is a special Congressional election in California that has gotten very little attention. It is a strongly Democratic-leaning district, but the Republican has run a spirited campaign and may have an outside chance at an upset victory if turnout is low and anti-government sentiment is high. I would not rule out a Republican victory here, but in the absence of accurate polling, conventional wisdom would have to favor a Democratic win. Look for this race to be close though.
To summarize -- I anticipate that Election 2009 will be a big night for Republicans, and the headlines do not bode well for Obama and the Democrats in Congress as we look forward to the big congressional elections of 2010.
1. Virginia. This is the easiest one to predict. The Republican candidate for governor, Bob McDonnell, has run a very strong campaign and looks to be cruising to an easy victory over Democrat Creigh Deeds. Every poll taken over the past two weeks has shown McDonnell with a double-digit lead over Deeds, ranging from 10 points (Research 2000) to 19 points (Survey USA). Polls also show that the level of excitement and enthusiasm is much higher for McDonnell than for Deeds. In an off-year election, this will likely mean that McDonnell outperforms the polls -- energized conservatives will turn out in large numbers, while depressed Democrats are less likely to vote. I expect McDonnell will end up winning by at least 15 or 16 points, and maybe by as much as 20 points.
There are other races in Virginia as well, and Republicans should also fare well in those races. It seems likely that the GOP will win both the Lieutenant Governor & Attorney General races by comfortable margins. If McDonnell wins by double-digits, he will also sweep other down-ballot Republican candidates for the state legislature to victory. The GOP seems poised to pick up 4 or 5 seats in the House of Delegates -- and maybe even more.
Why this Republican sweep in Virginia? Remember, this once-solid Republican state has been trending Democratic in recent years, and Obama carried it by a significant margin just last year. Some of the blame for the strong swing back to the GOP this year has to go to Creigh Deeds, who was hardly a strong candidate. Deeds ran a relentlessly negative campaign and failed to present a positive agenda to the voters. He stumbled over his words in debates and interviews and flip-flopped badly on numerous issues. But I think the bigger reason for McDonnell's huge victory is widespread dissatisfaction and even anger against the hard-left agenda of Obama and congressional Democrats. Deeds' shortcomings as a candidate may explain why he is losing, but it by itself does not account for the huge margin of loss. Why are Republicans so energized? Why are so many moderates and independents supporting McDonnell? The reason is that they are dissatisfied with Democratic leadership in Virginia and Washington DC and want a change.
McDonnell's win is something worth celebrating. He, along with his fellow-Republican candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general, is a true conservative who has fought hard for the pro-life cause and for traditional family values. He is a strong believer in individual freedom, limited government, and lower taxes. And he is a gracious candidate who reaches out to moderates.
2. New Jersey. This state's governor's race is much harder to predict because it is much closer than Virginia's. Up until a couple of days ago, I thought Democrat Jon Corzine was going to win this race. But it does look like the GOP candidate Chris Christie has a bit of momentum right now. The most recent polls have shown him slightly ahead and gaining ground, and it does seem like late-deciding voters are unlikely to vote for the highly unpopular incumbent Corzine.
I am very reluctant to pick Christie as the winner though, because the Democratic organization in New Jersey is so strong. No Republican has won any state-wide race here since 1997 when Christie Todd Whitman, a liberal Republican, was narrowly re-elected governor. Corruption and dirty tricks are very common here, and labor unions and political bosses have their way of getting "their people" to the polls, legally or otherwise. The Democrats are launching a huge get-out-the-vote effort on behalf of Corzine, and Obama was in the state yesterday campaigning. Corzine has outspent Christie by about 3 to 1, and much of that money has been spent on nasty personal attacks designed to increase Christie's negatives. Even with all that, however, Corzine continues to have extremely high negatives -- close to 60%.
I am very hesitantly picking Christie to squeak out a win -- probably by one or two points -- over Corzine, with independent Chris Daggett finishing a very distant third with no more than 5 or 6 percent of the vote. The Democratic ground game and party machinery will be worth at least a couple of points on election day, but I now think that Christie's support among independents and a strong turnout of angry, motivated conservatives will be enough to put him over the top. I do not expect Republicans to gain much, if anything, in the NJ state legislature.
Christie is not a perfect candidate who has not presented a lot of positive ideas, and it's unlikely he will be able to accomplish much as governor with a heavily Democratic legislature working against him. Still, he is more conservative than the typical New Jersey Republican, and his victory is likely to have symbolic significance this year. Obama has spent a lot of time in New Jersey lately and is expending a lot of political capital on a Corzine win. If Corzine were to lose in one of the most Democratic states in the country, it would be a big embarrassment for Obama and could be interpreted as a repudiation of his agenda. Also, it would mean a GOP sweep of the 2009 governors' elections, which would give the Republican momentum going into the 2010 elections and might scare some moderate Democrats who are on the fence about ObamaCare.
3. NY-23 Congressional Race. This is a special election for a U.S. Congress seat in upstate New York that was vacated when the Republican congressman who occupied it for 16 years resigned from Congress to take a post in the Obama administration. I posted earlier about how the Republican party chose liberal state assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava as their nominee, and conservatives revolted and rallied around the Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman. For awhile, this looked to be a very interesting three-way race. Then, Scozzafava began to fade in the polls as more and more Republicans and independents began to defect to support Hoffman. On Saturday, Scozzafava quit the race and endorsed the Democrat, Bill Owens.
There has been quite a bit of polling done on this race, but polling is notoriously inaccurate for congressional races, so it's hard to know how much the numbers can be relied on. The two most recent polls are showing Hoffman leading Owens, but one of them is showing Hoffman with only a five point lead with nearly 20% of voters undecided.
It is hard to know how much of an impact Scozzafava's endorsement of Owens will have on the race. It seems likely to me that more of her supporters will vote for Owens than for Hoffman, and a lot of liberal organizations are pouring money into Owens' campaign in the final days. Still, conservatives are energized and are likely to turn out in large numbers to vote for Hoffman. Considering that turnout is likely to be low and that this is a conservative-leaning district that has a history of voting for Republicans, I think it is reasonable to pick Hoffman as the winner. But Owens may have some momentum coming out of the weekend, so I'm guessing this election will also be close. I'm guessing that Hoffman wins by 3 or 4 points, but I'm hardly sure about this prediction.
4. Other Races. There are a couple of other races happening this year as well. In the New York City mayoral race, Republican incumbent Michael Bloomberg looks likely to win a 3rd term, although his Democratic opponent is making it fairly competitive. And there is a special Congressional election in California that has gotten very little attention. It is a strongly Democratic-leaning district, but the Republican has run a spirited campaign and may have an outside chance at an upset victory if turnout is low and anti-government sentiment is high. I would not rule out a Republican victory here, but in the absence of accurate polling, conventional wisdom would have to favor a Democratic win. Look for this race to be close though.
To summarize -- I anticipate that Election 2009 will be a big night for Republicans, and the headlines do not bode well for Obama and the Democrats in Congress as we look forward to the big congressional elections of 2010.
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