My U.S. House Predictions

Time to begin making predictions for the 2012 elections!  My prediction for the U.S. House is for the Republicans, surprisingly, to gain 4 seats.  My predicted partisan breakdown for the 2013-2015 House of Representatives is 245 Republicans and 190 Democrats.

Here are the details of my prediction.  If a district is "safe" or "likely," that means I am certain or fairly certain that it will go to a particular party, probably by a comfortable margin.  If a district "leans" toward a particular party, that means I believe that it is competitive but favors one party or the other.  "Tossup" districts feature highly competitive races which could go to either party on election night.

Safe or Likely Republican: 215 seats

Includes 6 currently held Democratic seats - Democratic incumbent Larry Kissell of North Carolina, 1 Democratic open seat in Arkansas, 1 Democratic open seat in Indiana, 2 Democratic open seats in North Carolina, and 1 Democratic open seat in Oklahoma.

Leans Republican: 15 seats

1. Colorado 3 - GOP incumbent Scott Tipton reelected
2. Florida 10 - GOP incumbent Daniel Webster reelected
3. Florida 18 - GOP incumbent Allen West reelected
4. Iowa 3 - Combined district; GOP incumbent Tom Latham defeats Dem incumbent Leonard Boswell
5. Iowa 4 - GOP incumbent Steve King reelected
6. Massachusetts 6 - Democratic incumbent John Tierney loses to Republican Richard Tisei
7. Michigan 11 - GOP open seat; Republican Kerry Bentivolio wins
8. Minnesota 6 - GOP incumbent Michele Bachmann reelected
9. Nevada 3 - GOP incumbent Joe Heck reelected
10. New York 18 - GOP incumbent Nan Hayworth reelected
11. New York 19 - GOP incumbent Chris Gibson reelected
12. New York 27 - Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul loses to Republican Chris Collins
13. Ohio 6 - GOP incumbent Bill Johnson reelected
14. Utah 4 - Democratic incumbent Jim Matheson loses to Republican Mia Love
15. Wisconsin 7 - GOP incumbent Sean Duffy reelected

Tossup - Republican win: 15 seats

1. Arizona 1 - GOP open seat; Republican Jonathan Paton wins
2. California 7 - GOP incumbent Dan Lungren reelected
3. California 10 - GOP incumbent Jeff Dunham reelected
4. California 36 - GOP incumbent Mary Bono Mack reelected
5. California 52 - GOP incumbent Brian Bilbray reelected
6. Colorado 6 - GOP incumbent Mike Coffman reelected
7. Illinois 10 - GOP incumbent Bob Dold reelected
8. Illinois 13 - GOP open seat; Republican Rodney Davis wins
9. Michigan 1 - GOP incumbent Dan Benishek reelected
10. New Hampshire 1 - GOP incumbent Frank Guinta reelected
11. Nevada 4 - New district; Republican Danny Tarkanian wins
12. Ohio 16 - Combined district; GOP incumbent Jim Renacci defeats Dem incumbent Betty Sutton
13. Pennsylvania 12 - Democratic incumbent Mark Critz loses to Republican Keith Rothfus
14. Tennessee 4 - GOP incumbent Scott DesJarlais reelected
15. Texas 23 - GOP incumbent Quico Canseco reelected

Tossup - Democrat win: 16 seats

1. California 9 - Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney reelected
2. California 24 - Democratic incumbent Lois Capps reelected
3. California 26 - GOP open seat; Democrat Julia Brownley wins
4. Connecticut 5 - Democratic open seat; Democrat Elizabeth Esty wins
5. Georgia 12 - Democratic incumbent John Barrow reelected
6. Illinois 11 - GOP incumbent Judy Biggert loses to Democrat Bill Foster
7. Illinois 12 - Democratic open seat; Democrat Bill Enyart wins
8. Illinois 17 - GOP incumbent Bobby Schilling loses to Democrat Cheri Bustos
9. Kentucky 6 - Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler reelected
10. Minnesota 8 - GOP incumbent Chip Cravaack loses to Democrat Rick Nolan
11. New Hampshire 2 - GOP incumbent Charles Bass loses to Democrat Ann McLane Kuster
12. New York 1 - Democratic incumbent Tim Bishop reelected
13. New York 21 - Democratic incumbent Bill Owens reelected
14. New York 24 - GOP incumbent Ann Marie Buerkle loses to Democrat Dan Maffei
15. North Carolina 7 - Democratic incumbent Mike McIntyre reelected
16. Rhode Island 1 - Democratic incumbent David Cicilline reelected

Leans Democrat: 6 seats

1. Arizona 2 - Democratic incumbent Ron Barber reelected
2. Arizona 9 - New district; Democrat Kyrsten Sinema wins
3. California 41 - New district; Democrat Mark Takano wins
4. Florida 26 - GOP incumbent David Rivera loses to Democrat Joe Garcia
5. Illinois 8 - GOP incumbent Joe Walsh loses to Democrat Tammy Duckworth
6. New York 25 - Democratic incumbent Louise Slaughter reelected

Safe or Likely Democrat: 168 seats

Includes one currently held GOP seat - that of Republican incumbent Roscoe Bartlett.

The good news is that, regardless of whether or not Barack Obama is reelected, the Republicans are virtually certain to retain a big majority in the House of Representatives.  This means that if they have enough backbone to do so, they should be able to limit the amount of damage that Obama does to the country over the next four years in the event that he is reelected (which I am not predicting by the way).

Senate and Electoral College predictions to follow soon....

2010 Election: House Races

This is probably something that only political junkies will find interesting, but here are my rankings for the 2010 competitive U.S. House races. Please note that due to the large number of seats in play and the very limited amount of public polling available, it is virtually impossible to predict all of these races accurately. Still, here is my perspective on the current state of the battle for the House, starting with Democratic-held seats.

Likely or Certain GOP Pickups:
1. Open (Bart Gordon) (TN-6)
2. Open (Charlie Melancon) (LA-2)
3. Open (Vic Snyder) (AR-2)
4. Open (Eric Massa) (NY-29)

Vulnerable Seats Leaning Toward the GOP:
1. Open (Dennis Moore) (KS-3)
2. Open (Brad Ellsworth) (IN-8)
3. Frank Kratovil (MD-1)
4. Harry Teague (NM-2)
5. Steve Driehaus (OH-1)
6. Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15)
7. Betsy Markey (CO-4)
8. Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)
9. Travis Childers (MS-1)
10. Open (Paul Hodes) (NH-2)
11. Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1)
12. Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL)
13. Open (Brian Baird) (WA-3)
14. Open (John Tanner) (TN-8)
15. Chet Edwards (TX-17)
16. Open (Marion Berry) (AR-1)
17. Debbie Halvorson (IL-11)
18. Tom Perriello (VA-5)
19. Dina Titus (NV-3)
20. Paul Kanjorski (PA-11)
21. Open (Joe Sestak) (PA-7)
22. Mark Schauer (MI-7)
23. John Boccieri (OH-16)
24. Glenn Nye (VA-2)
25. Open (Bart Stupak) (MI-1)
26. Michael Arcuri (NY-24)
27. Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3)

Tossup Races - Slight GOP Edge:
1. Alan Grayson (FL-8)
2. Allen Boyd (FL-2)
3. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL)
4. John Spratt (SC-5)
5. Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-1)
6. Harry Mitchell (AZ-5)
7. Patrick Murphy (PA-8)
8. John Hall (NY-19)
9. Open (David Obey) (WI-7)

Tossup Races - Slight Democrat Edge:
1. Open (Alan Mollohan) (WV-1)
2. Baron Hill (IN-9)
3. Larry Kissell (NC-8)
4. Bill Foster (IL-14)
5. Bobby Bright (AL-2)
6. Jim Marshall (GA-8)
7. Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8)
8. Leonard Boswell (IA-3)
9. Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23)
10. Steve Kagen (WI-8)
11. Jerry McNerney (CA-11)
12. Chris Carney (PA-10)
13. John Salazar (CO-3)
14. Zack Space (OH-18)
15. Ike Skelton (MO-4)
16. Tim Bishop (NY-1)
17. Ron Klein (FL-22)
18. Scott Murphy (NY-20)
19. John Adler (NJ-3)
20. Phil Hare (IL-17)
21. Joe Donnelly (IN-2)

Vulnerable Seats Leaning Toward the Democrats:
1. Walt Minnick (ID-1)
2. Rick Boucher (VA-9)
3. Martin Heinrich (NM-1)
4. Betty Sutton (OH-13)
5. Bill Owens (NY-23)
6. Open (Bill Delahunt) (MA-10)
7. Mark Critz (PA-12)
8. Gerry Connolly (VA-11)
9. Ben Chandler (KY-6)
10. Kurt Schrader (OR-5)
11. Lincoln Davis (TN-4)
12. Heath Shuler (NC-11)
13. Gary Peters (MI-9)
14. Loretta Sanchez (CA-47)
15. Jim Himes (CT-4)
16. Rick Larsen (WA-2)
17. Ed Perlmutter (CO-7)
18. Tim Walz (MN-1)
19. Sanford Bishop (GA-2)
20. Charlie Wilson (OH-6)

Long-Shot Opportunities for the GOP:
1. Mike McMahon (NY-13)
2. Jason Altmire (PA-4)
3. Tim Holden (PA-17)
4. Christopher Murphy (CT-5)
5. Dan Maffei (NY-25)
6. Ron Kind (WI-3)
7. Melissa Bean (IL-8)
8. Dennis Cardoza (CA-18)
9. Nick Rahall (WV-3)
10. Bob Etheridge (NC-2)
11. Open (Patrick Kennedy) (RI-1)
12. Rush Holt (NJ-12)
13. John Yarmuth (KY-3)
14. John Barrow (GA-12)
15. Jim Matheson (UT-2)
16. Mike McIntyre (NC-7)
17. Jim Costa (CA-20)
18. Bruce Braley (IA-1)
19. Dave Loebsack (IA-2)
20. Michael Michaud (ME-2)
21. Carolyn McCarthy (NY-4)
22. Anthony Weiner (NY-9)
23. Raul Grijalva (AZ-7)
24. Steve Israel (NY-2)
25. Chellie Pingree (ME-1)

Now for the very few competitive Republican-held seats:

Likely Democratic Pickups:
1. Anh Cao (LA-3)
2. Open (Mike Castle) (DE-AL)

Tossup Races - Slight Democrat Edge:
1. Open (Mark Kirk) (IL-10)
2. Charles Djou (HI-1)

Vulnerable Seats Leaning Toward the GOP:
1. Open (Mario Diaz-Balart) (FL-25)
2. Dan Lungren (CA-3)

Long-Shot Opportunities for the Democrats:
1. Open (Parker Griffith) (AL-5)
2. Charlie Dent (PA-15)

All in all, that leaves us with a total of 8 competitive GOP seats, and a whopping 106 competitive Democratic seats. Right now, I have exactly 40 Democrat-held seats in the GOP column, while 4 Republican-held seats are in the Democratic column. That would be a net 36-seat gain for the GOP, three short of the number needed to take control of the House. However, I have an additional 21 Democratic-held tossup seats, many of which will likely end up going to the GOP on election night. I just don't know which ones yet! It seems quite likely the Republicans will end up with a net gain of at least 40-50 seats, given the large number of vulnerable Democratic incumbents whose challengers are still little-known.