As the returns continue to pour in...overall the Republicans are meeting but not exceeding expectations. They're winning most of the House races they should win, but not by overwhelming margins. They're not winning some of the longshots that could have portended massive 70+ seat gains. They're probably on track to win about 60 seats or so. The results look great for the GOP in Virginia, Ohio, and Florida House races especially. The results are disappointing in North Carolina, where most of the vulnerable Democrats are squeaking out wins.
It's disappointing that the Pennsylvania Senate race hasn't been called yet. But the Pennsylvania governor's race has been called for the Republican, and Toomey is only running about three percentage points behind the gubernatorial candidate Corbett, so I think it's likely Toomey will squeak it out, probably by a closer margin than expected. In Illinois the Republicans appear to be trailing, but apparently the early vote is mostly from heavily Democratic Chicago. I'm very surprised with how close the South Carolina governor's race is. I thought Nikki Haley would win that by a wide margin, as pre-election polls were clearly suggesting. The Ohio and Florida governor's races are also closer than I would like, but I think the Republicans will be able to win both of them. And the Democrat has won the Massachusetts governor's race -- this is a disappointment. I went out on a limb and predicted a come-from-behind GOP win in this race. However, I think the GOP might win the governor's race in Connecticut -- this was a come-from-behind win that may yet materialize.
Again -- not the tsunami I thought, but still a solid night for the GOP so far. But a lot of big races still to be decided -- Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, Washington, Wisconsin, etc.
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