Final House Predictions

Here are my final U.S. House predictions (drum roll please). Like pretty much everyone else, I'm seeing strong movement toward the Republicans in the final week or two. Race by race, the numbers are looking terrible for the Democrats, with literally dozens of seats in play that were thought to be safe for the Democrats just a few short weeks ago. Another sign that the wave is coming is in the final Gallup poll. Usually the generic ballot question tightens as we move toward election day, but Gallup is showing a huge margin of 15 points in favor of the Republicans! Obviously, if this number is even close to right, it portends huge gains for the GOP today. (And Gallup has an excellent track record of accurately predicting House results with their generic ballot numbers.) Here's more commentary from Gallup:

"Taking Gallup's final survey's margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible. It should be noted, however, that this year's 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations."

Wow.

Other prognosticators have also commented on the very real possibility of stratospheric Republican gains. Nate Silver, a Democratic-leaning political and statistics guru, also provided a possible blowout scenario and 5 reasons why this is possible here.

I have made my best effort, given time constraints, to predict the outcome of all the House races. I am confident that at least some of these picks will be wrong, because there is limited or non-existent polling in many of these races. Also, in a wave election like this, there are always seats that stay beneath the radar and end up being huge surprises on election night. We saw it in 2006, and we will see it again this year. But I think (and hope) that my overall net gain prediction is close to accurate. I am predicting the Republicans will pick up 71 Democratic-held seats, but lose 3 of their own, for a net gain of 68 seats. This is a bold prediction, but not as much out of line as you might think from other prognosticators. For example, Stu Rothenberg is projecting 55-65 seat gains, and RealClearPolitics has a pick-up range from 45 to 89, with an average of 67.

Here are the likely or certain Republican pickups:

1. Open (Gordon) (TN)
2. Open (Melancon) (LA)
3. Open (Snyder) (AR)
4. Open (Massa) (NY)
5. Open (Ellsworth) (IN)
6. Open (Moore) (KS)
7. Debbie Halvorson (IL)
8. Mary Jo Kilroy (OH)


And the competitive seats that lean toward a Republican pickup:

1. Open (Tanner) (TN)
2. Betsy Markey (CO)
3. Suzanne Kosmas (FL)
4. Chet Edwards (TX)
5. Steve Driehaus (OH)
6. Kathy Dahlkemper (PA)
7. Alan Grayson (FL)
8. Allen Boyd (FL)
9. Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ)
10. Glenn Nye (VA)
11. Steve Kagen (WI)
12. Jim Marshall (GA)
13. Tom Perriello (VA)
14. Open (Stupak) (MI)
15. Carol Shea-Porter (NH)
16. Frank Kratovil (MD)
17. Harry Teague (NM)
18. John Boccieri (OH)
19. Open (Baird) (WA)
20. Travis Childers (MS)
21. Earl Pomeroy (ND)
22. Open (Obey) (WI)
23. Open (Berry) (AR)
24. Harry Mitchell (AZ)
25. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD)
26. John Spratt (SC)
27. Phil Hare (IL)
28. Paul Kanjorski (PA)
29. Dina Titus (NV)

And the seats that are tossups which I am predicting to go narrowly for the GOP:

1. Open (Sestak) (PA)
2. Baron Hill (IN)
3. Zack Space (OH)
4. John Hall (NY)
5. John Salazar (CO)
6. Bill Foster (IL)
7. John Adler (NJ)
8. Patrick Murphy (PA)
9. Bill Owens (NY)
10. Jerry McNerney (CA)
11. Ron Klein (FL)
12. Chris Carney (PA)
13. Lincoln Davis (TN)
14. Scott Murphy (NY)
15. Larry Kissell (NC)
16. Mark Schauer (MI)
17. Open (Mollohan) (WV)
18. Ciro Rodriguez (TX)
19. Open (Hodes) (NH)
20. Bobby Bright (AL)
21. Sanford Bishop (GA)
22. Michael Arcuri (NY)
23. Kurt Schrader (OR)
24. Ike Skelton (MO)
25. Charlie Wilson (OH)
26. Gene Taylor (MS)
27. Jim Costa (CA)
28. Ben Chandler (KY)
29. Joe Donnelly (IN)
30. Martin Heinrich (NM)
31. Mike McIntyre (NC)
32. Bob Etheridge (NC)
33. James Oberstar (MN)
34. Ed Perlmutter (CO)

And the tossup seats which I am predicting to go narrowly to the Democrats:

1. Gabrielle Giffords (AZ)
2. Walt Minnick (ID)
3. Open (Delahunt) (MA)
4. Raul Grijalva (AZ)
5. Gerry Connolly (VA)
6. Tim Bishop (NY)
7. Rick Boucher (VA)
8. Mark Critz (PA)
9. Christopher Murphy (CT)
10. Jim Himes (CT)
11. Gary Peters (MI)
12. Loretta Sanchez (CA)
13. Heath Shuler (NC)
14. Ron Kind (WI)
15. Chellie Pingree (ME)
16. Dennis Cardoza (CA)
17. Melissa Bean (IL)
18. Rick Larsen (WA)

And the competitive seats that lean toward a Democratic hold:

1. Dan Maffei (NY)
2. Mike McMahon (NY)
3. Leonard Boswell (IA)
4. Tim Walz (MN)
5. Jason Altmire (PA)
6. John Yarmuth (KY)
7. Maurice Hinchey (NY)
8. Adam Smith (WA)
9. Solomon Ortiz (TX)
10. Michael Michaud (ME)
11. Jim Matheson (UT)
12. Frank Pallone (NJ)
13. Open (Rhode Island) (RI)

And the likely Democratic holds (where an upset is at least possible):

1. Bruce Braley (IA)
2. Betty Sutton (OH)
3. Dave Loebsack (IA)
4. Nick Rahall (WV)
5. Tim Holden (PA)
6. Rush Holt (NJ)
7. Russ Carnahan (MO)
8. Barney Frank (MA)
9. John Barrow (GA)
10. Mike Ross (AR)
11. Carolyn McCarthy (NY)
12. Peter DeFazio (OR)
13. Brad Miller (NC)
14. Steve Israel (NY)
15. Anthony Weiner (NY)

All in all, this adds up to 117 Democratic-held seats that are competitive or potentially competitive. I'm predicting the GOP will pick up 71 of those seats.

On the Republican side, there are a LOT fewer seats in play. I am predicting the Democrats will easily pick up the seat of Joseph Cao (LA). Mike Castle's open seat in Delaware leans toward the Democrats. And Mark Kirk's open seat in Illinois is a tossup race that I think the Democrats will narrowly win. That adds up to 3 losses.

A few other Republican seats are vulnerable, but I think the GOP will hold on. In Hawaii, Charles Djou's race is a tossup that I think the GOP will narrowly hold. There are three competitive seats that lean toward the Republicans: Dan Lungren (CA), Open (Diaz-Balart) (FL), and Open (Shadegg) (AZ). And there are five additional seats that are likely GOP holds: Charlie Dent (PA), Open (Putnam) (FL), Dave Reichert (WA), Open (Griffith) (AL), and Michele Bachmann (MN).

That adds up to 12 competitive or potentially competitive GOP-held seats, 3 of which I think they will lose.

In less than 24 hours, we will know the outcome of most of these races....