The U.S. Senate Outlook, Six Months Out

With about six months to go until Election 2010, political junkies like me are already paying attention to how the races are shaping up. Here is my race-by-race analysis of the battle for the U.S. Senate. A ranking of "Safe" means that the race is in the bag for one party or the other. A ranking of "Likely" means that the race is not competitive but has good potential to become competitive before Election Day. A ranking of "Leans" means that the race is competitive but one party has the advantage. A ranking of "Tossup" means that the race is highly competitive and neither party seems to have an advantage.

1. Alabama. GOP incumbent Richard Shelby is all but guaranteed re-election. Safe Republican.

2. Alaska. Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski is facing no significant Democratic opposition. Safe Republican.

3. Arizona. 2008 Presidential candidate John McCain is facing a tough primary challenge from J.D. Hayworth, a very conservative former congressman. Although McCain has antagonized his conservative base many times during his political career, he seems to be holding his own pretty well so far in this primary race. Polls show him ahead, but it's unclear by how much. If McCain is the nominee, this race is a certain Republican win against a fairly weak Democratic opponent. If Hayworth is the nominee, I think the Republicans will have a much harder time holding this seat (although I still think he would be favored in the current political environment). Likely Republican (that ranking will change to Leans Republican - or even Tossup - if Hayworth wins and Safe Republican if McCain wins).

4. Arkansas. Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln is probably the most imperiled Senate incumbent running for re-election this year. She has trailed by a significant margin in every recent poll, and her job approval ratings are abysmal. She first has to get past a well-funded primary challenger running to her left, Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter. Then, she will likely face one of two top-tier Republicans: Congressman John Boozman or State Senator Gilbert Baker. Neither Lincoln's chances or Halter's chances look great in the general election, given the deep unpopularity in the state of President Obama and the health care reform bill (which both Lincoln and Halter supported). Leans Republican.

5. California. Liberal Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer generally has no trouble getting re-elected in this heavily Democratic state. But this year, she seems unusually vulnerable. Her unfavorability ratings are very high, and a couple of recent polls showed well under 50% and in a virtual tie with two potential GOP opponents, Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina. I still give Boxer the advantage, given the state's ideological leanings, Obama's relative popularity here, and the huge amount of cash she has on hand. But this is a winnable race for Republicans. Campbell is probably the most moderate of the Republicans in the primary race, but Fiorina has access to lots of cash. Leans Democratic.

6. Colorado. The incumbent in this race, Democrat Michael Bennet, was appointed as a replacement to Ken Salazar, who is now working in the Obama Administration. Bennet is facing a primary challenge from the speaker of the Colorado House, Andrew Romanoff. Jane Norton is considered the frontrunner in the GOP primary, but she is facing two other top-tier Republicans, including Ken Buck, a favorite of conservatives. Although President Obama carried Colorado by a big margin in 2008, he is now quite unpopular here, with a full 60% of voters favoring repeal of ObamaCare. Polls indicate a close race, but unless Obama's numbers improve it will be a tough race for Democrats to win. Tossup.

7. Connecticut. Originally, this race was thought to be an excellent pickup opportunity for Republicans, with ethically-challenged Democratic incumbent Chris Dodd polling very poorly. Then Dodd decided to retire, and the state's extremely popular Attorney General, Richard Blumenthal, jumped in the race. Conventional wisdom said Blumenthal was certain to win easily and keep the seat in Democratic hands. Yet, so far, Blumenthal has run a weak, gaffe-prone campaign that has given the GOP hope again. The Republican primary race is between moderate former congressman Robert Simmons and the founder of WWF Linda McMahon. While Simmons seems like a good fit for the liberal-leaning state, McMahon is willing to pour an almost unlimited amount of her personal fortune into the race. Obama is significantly more popular here than in the country at large, which works to Blumenthal's advantage. Likely Democratic.

8. Delaware. This Senate seat became vacant when Joe Biden became Vice-President, and was filled by an appointed Democratic replacement who is not running this year. The likely general election matchup is between the state's long-time GOP congressman, Michael Castle, and local Democratic official Chris Coons. (Vice-President Biden's son, Beau Biden, was originally expected to run for this seat, but later changed his mind and declined to run.) Castle compiled a very moderate voting record while in Congress (he is currently the most liberal GOP member of the House), and is extremely popular in this Democratic state. Although Democrats believe Coons is a strong candidate, he is badly trailing Castle in the polls right now. Leans Republican.

9. Florida. This race has been getting a lot of attention recently, with GOP Governor Charlie Crist dropping out of a Republican primary he was certain to lose and announcing he will run for the Senate as an independent. This sets up a three-way race between Republican Marco Rubio, Democrat Kendrick Meek, and Independent Charlie Crist. All this action has happened just in the past couple of weeks, meaning that it is too soon to say how Crist's independent bid will impact the race. Many observers believe that Crist will not be able to win, citing the state's relatively small percentage of unaffiliated voters (less than 20%) and possible problems raising money. Crist's party-switch seems rather blatantly opportunistic, which could also hurt him. At first glance it seems that having two Republican-affiliated candidates in a three-way race would give Democrat Kendrick Meek an excellent shot at winning. However, Crist was polling at 30% or below in the GOP primary before switching parties, so my guess is that he will probably not steal very many Republican votes from Rubio in the end. In the end, I think Rubio will be able to win a three-way race, given Florida's conservative tilt, Obama's state-wide unpopularity, and Rubio's exceptional abilities as a candidate. But I expect a competitive race. Leans Republican.

10. Georgia. Republican incumbent Johnny Isakson looked for awhile as though he would cruise with no significant Democratic opposition, but the state's Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond recently jumped into the race. Some observers think this race has the potential to be competitive, but I don't think so. Thurmond is a decent candidate, but he cannot win in a Republican-leaning state, in a Republican-leaning year, against a reasonably popular Republican incumbent. Safe Republican.

11. Hawaii. Octogenarian Daniel Inouye has represented Hawaii in the U.S. Senate since it achieved statehood. He has this seat for as long as he wants it. Safe Democratic.

12. Idaho. Senator Michael Crapo is virtually unopposed. Safe Republican.

13. Illinois. You'd think that if there were any seat that should be safe for the Democrats, it would Barack Obama's old Senate seat in Democratic-leaning Illinois. Not so. Obama's interim replacement is not running for re-election, and Republican Mark Kirk is looking surprisingly strong against Democrat Alexi Giannoulias in this open seat race. Kirk is a moderate-to-liberal Republican who represented a Democratic-leaning suburban Chicago district for a number of years and who seems to have substantial appeal to independents and moderate Democrats. He has also been very effective at raising money thus far. Illinois voters are already fed up with the scandals of the Democratic party in the state (remember Rod Blagojevich?) and Giannoulias has plenty of baggage himself. Besides ties to the ethically-challenged Democratic machine in Chicago, Giannoulias's family-owned bank recently went bankrupt. Working in Giannoulias's favor are the state's Democratic tilt and the fact that Obama will likely pull out all the stops to hold this seat. Leans Republican.

14. Indiana. This is not a good year to run as a Democrat in Indiana. The state, which has trended toward Democrats the last couple of election cycles, is now swingly sharply back toward the GOP. Both Obama's disapproval rating and opposition to ObamaCare are currently at 60% or higher, and Democrat Brad Ellsworth is paying the price for voting in favor of the health care bill. Recent polls have shown Ellsworth trailing Republican nominee and former senator Dan Coats by 15-20 points. Coats has some baggage (he has been living outside of the state and doing lobbying work in Washington, DC for the past 10 years) and is doubtless a little rusty on the campaign trail (his last campaign was 1992). In a year less favorable to the GOP, the moderate Ellsworth would be even money or better to win. In 2010, Coats has a definite advantage. Leans Republican.

15. Iowa. Some political pundits believe Republican Senator Chuck Grassley is vulnerable. True, Iowa did go heavily for Obama in 2008, and Grassley's likely Democratic opponent Roxanne Conlin has raised plenty of cash. And Grassley's early attempts to work out a compromise on the health care legislation did not endear him to the conservative wing of his party. But Grassley has proved himself to be very effective at winning elections in a state which often trends Democratic, and since he was first elected in the early 1980's he has built up enough popularity and goodwill to consistently roll up sizable victory margins in both favorable and unfavorable political climates. It's not inconceivable that even a fixture like Grassley could lose a future election in such a polarized political environment, but it won't be in a year as favorable to the GOP as 2010 is likely to be. Safe Republican.

16. Kansas. The real battle for this Senate seat is in the GOP primary, where two Republican congressmen, Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt, are squaring off against each other. Moran is the frontrunner but Tiahrt is especially popular among social conservatives in the state. Either candidate is expected to win pretty easily in this Republican state over relatively token Democratic opposition. Safe Republican.

17. Kentucky. This race to fill the seat of retiring conservative firebrand Jim Bunning is one of the most interesting of the cycle, with highly competitive primaries on both sides of the aisle. Since we don't yet know who the party nominees will be, it's a little hard to predict the likely outcome. On the Republican side, Rand Paul, the son of presidential candidate Ron Paul, is squaring off against establishment candidate Trey Grayson. While most observers believe Paul's libertarian-leaning, non-traditional GOP views will make him a weaker candidate in the general election, every public poll has shown him with a double-digit lead over Grayson. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo is competing against Attorney General Jack Conway. Mongiardo is positioning himself as a centrist and has led in polls, although Conway has been closing the gap. While Paul may have trouble winning over some traditional Republican constituencies, his anti-spending message may have particular resonance this election cycle, and it will be challenging for any Democrat to win in a state where Obama's approval rating is in the 30's. Still, the race is very fluid at the moment. Tossup.

18. Louisiana. The Republicans are in much better shape in this race than anyone would have imagined a year or two ago. When news came out a couple of years ago that conservative Senator David Vitter was involved with a prostitute, most people assumed his career was over. Sex scandals are usually the kiss of death for politicians, especially conservative ones. But Vitter was apparently able to mitigate the damage somewhat by confessing to his wife before the news became public and by working to repair his marriage, and he now seems to be in relatively good shape to be re-elected. Vitter's Democratic opponent, Charlie Melancon, is a moderate who voted against the health care bill in the House. However, he doesn't seem to be getting much traction and is running well behind in polls. Obama's deep unpopularity in this Deep South state doesn't help. Likely Republican.

19. Maryland. No one is going to beat long-time Democratic incumbent Barbara Mikulski. Safe Democratic.

20. Missouri. This open seat race to replace retiring Republican Kit Bond is pretty well-defined, as GOP Congressman Roy Blunt and Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan have been the presumptive nominees of their respective parties for months. Missouri has a recent history of highly competitive Senate races, and this one seems to be no exception. Both candidates come from well-known political families and have raised plenty of cash. However, recent polls have shown Blunt with an advantage, and it seems likely that Obama's unpopularity here will hurt Carnahan. Even in 2008, a year with record black turnout, Obama was unable to carry the state; 2010 will be much more favorable to the GOP. Leans Republican.

21. Nevada. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, the most powerful Democrat in the Senate, is in the fight of his political life. For months, polls have been showing Reid hovering at 40% of the vote or below and badly trailing several lesser-known GOP challengers -- not a good place for a 24-year incumbent to be. Reid's partisan tactics (especially in regard to the health care bill) and numerous recent controversial comments have contributed to his unpopularity in this swing state. Another factor working against Reid is Obama's unpopularity in the state, fueled by the state's double-digit unemployment and highest-in-the-nation home foreclosure rate. If there is a silver lining for Reid, it is the fact that his GOP challengers are relatively weak, comparatively under-funded, and facing a divisive, resource-sapping primary fight. Sue Lowden appears to be the frontrunner, but her gaffes have opened the door to other candidates. Leans Republican.

22. New Hampshire. This New England state, once solidly Republican, has been trending Democratic over the past decade, so when Republican Senator Judd Gregg decided to retire, Democrats saw a prime pickup opportunity. However, Obama's political fortunes have dramatically declined here since he dominated the state in Election 2008, and Republicans now look well-positioned to hold this seat and also possibly pick up both the state's House seats as well. Likely Democratic nominee Paul Hodes is taking heat for supporting the health care bill and is badly trailing the GOP frontrunner Kelly Ayotte, the state's former attorney general. But Ayotte first has to win a crowded primary against several other tough candidates Leans Republican.

23. New York, Seat 1. Left-wing crusader Charles Schumer remains quite popular in New York and has only token Republican opposition. Safe Democratic.

24. New York, Seat 2. This election is to fill the remainder of Hillary Clinton's Senate term. The incumbent is Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, who was appointed to the seat by the state's governor last year. Since Gillibrand has never before been elected, her name recognition is much weaker than a typical incumbent, and her re-elect polling numbers have been consistently under 50%, indicating vulnerability. Unfortunately, the Republican party has been unable to find a top-tier candidate to run against her. The current crop of challengers is weak and underfunded. Safe Democratic.

25. North Carolina. Democrats see this race as probably their best opportunity to pick off a GOP incumbent in 2010. Republican Richard Burr is running for re-election for the first time, and his approval numbers have been unimpressive, largely due to the low profile he has kept during his first term (a large number of voters have no opinion of him, unusual for an incumbent). Democrats have two candidates involved in next month's primary runoff -- Cal Cunningham, the favorite of the national party establishment, and Elaine Marshall, who finished first in last week's primary. Some polls have shown Burr comfortably ahead, while others have shown him running neck-and-neck with his Democratic opponents. Although North Carolina did narrowly support Obama in 2008, it remains a fairly conservative state. It's hard for me to see an incumbent Republican losing here in a Republican year, apart from a major scandal or misstep. Likely Republican.

26. North Dakota. When long-time Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan decided to retire, Democrats knew they were in trouble. And when the state's popular Republican governor John Hoeven officially announced his candidacy, Democrats essentially conceded the race. A recent poll showed Hoeven clinging to 45 point lead over some Democratic sacrificial lamb. Safe Republican.

27. Ohio. In my opinion, this seat will be the hardest seat for the GOP to hold on to this election cycle. Obama is not particularly popular here, a state that has been hit hard by the economic downturn, and the unopposed Republican nominee Rob Portman looked strong in early polling. But Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher has succeeded in dispatching his Democratic rival in the primary last week while simultaneously erasing his polling deficit against Portman. The GOP still has a big financial advantage and the national political winds blowing in their favor, but numerous scandals have badly damaged the Republican brand in this state and Portman's ties to the Bush administration may not work in his favor. Tossup.

28. Oklahoma. Voters in Oklahoma recognize a gem when they see one. Tom Coburn is a tireless crusader against wasteful spending and corruption, and he is unopposed. Safe Republican.

29. Oregon. Popular Democratic Senator Ron Wyden is expected to cruise in a state where Obama remains relatively popular. Safe Democratic.

30. Pennsylvania. Last year, long-term liberal Republican Senator Arlen Specter switched to the Democratic party to avoid a primary race against conservative Pat Toomey he was likely to lose. Unfortunately for him, he is now facing a tough Democratic primary he is also likely to lose. Democrat Joe Sestak is effectively branding Specter as a turncoat and political opportunist and pointing out his past transgressions against liberal orthodoxy, and he has now pulled even with or slightly ahead of the incumbent in the polls. Polls are indicating a close general election race between Toomey and either Democrat. While some observers argue Toomey is too conservative for Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania, he has raised a lot of money and has the political winds at his back this year in a state where Obama is unpopular. Tossup.

31. South Carolina. Jim DeMint, one of the most outspoken conservatives in the U.S. Senate, is facing only token Democratic opposition. Safe Republican.

32. South Dakota. Six years ago, Republican John Thune won a nailbiter over sitting Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. This year, Thune is completely unopposed. Safe Republican.

33. Utah. Senator Robert Bennett became the first Senate casualty of the 2010 election cycle last week, losing on the second ballot at the Republican nominating convention. GOP delegates were fired up and angry over the direction of the country and viewed Bennett as too conciliatory toward Democrats, despite his relatively conservative voting record. The top two Republicans, Tim Bridgewater and Mike Lee, now go to a runoff. The winner of this runoff is almost certain to be elected in this heavily Republican state. Safe Republican.

34. Vermont. Liberal Democrat Pat Leahy is as safe as he can be. Safe Democratic.

35. Washington. Three-term Democratic Senator Patty Murray is potentially vulnerable, especially if former GOP gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi jumps into the race. Polls show Rossi in a dead heat with the liberal incumbent, but since Rossi has waited this long he will likely choose not to run. Even so, the Republicans have a decent, if badly underfunded, candidate in Don Benton. Some polls have shown Murray under 50%, so there is a possibility this race could become competitive, given the toxic political environment to incumbents this cycle. Likely Democratic.

36. Wisconsin. Russ Feingold is another Democratic incumbent who is potentially vulnerable. Feingold is consistently polling under 50% and leads some unknown challengers by very underwhelming margins. While the Republicans didn't get the challenger they wanted (former Governor Tommy Thompson), there are at least a couple of candidates in the crowded primary that could prove formidable against Feingold, a senator who has never won with more than 56% of the vote. One advantage for Feingold is Wisconsin's very late primary (in mid-September), which means it will be a long time before the GOP will be able to unite behind one candidate. Likely Democratic.

To summarize: There are six Democratic-held seats that I now believe are leaning toward the Republicans. Two other Democrat-held seats are tossups, as are two Republican-held seats. Four additional Democratic-held seats are at least somewhat vulnerable to takeover, as are five additional Republican-held seats. In my opinion, the political environment is going to cause most of the close races to begin to tilt toward the GOP in the fall. Right now, I'm predicting a GOP pickup of 6-8 seats. A pickup of 9 seats is not out of the realm of possibility, but it would be VERY difficult for the Republicans to win the 10 seats needed to take control of the Senate. To do so the Republicans would have to win all of their own vulnerable seats and virtually run the table on all the vulnerable Democratic seats as well. That is hard to do even in a good year.