It's a pretty big primary election day today in several parts of the country. Arkansas, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky have some important, closely-watched Senate primaries, and there is also a key special election for the U.S. Congress in the 12th district of Pennsylvania. Since I'm a political junkie, I can't help but give my predictions, for what they're worth:
1. Arkansas Senate Democratic Primary -- Incumbent Blanche Lincoln will (barely) get the most votes but will fall short of 50%, meaning she goes into a runoff with her top challenger Bill Halter. I'll say Lincoln gets around 48% and Halter around 46% or so, with a third candidate pulling about 5 or 6%. A runoff will weaken both candidates in the general election, so I'm all for that.
2. Arkansas Senate Republican Primary -- John Boozman will (barely) get more than 50% of the vote and avoid a runoff. Again, good news for the GOP.
3. Pennsylvania Senate Democratic Primary -- Joe Sestak, once far behind incumbent Arlen Specter in the polls, should beat Specter today. Although the most recent polls showed a dead heat race, Sestak has the momentum and I don't think Specter's supporters are energized enough to turn out for him in large numbers. In fact, I expect Sestak will win by at least 5, and maybe as much as 10 points. This is bad news for the GOP, as Sestak in my opinion will be a more formidable general election candidate. But I can't say I'm sorry to see a corrupt, opportunistic turncoat like Specter go.
4. Kentucky Senate Republican Primary -- Every poll is showing a big lead for Rand Paul (son of former presidential candidate Ron Paul), and I see no reason to believe it won't translate into a big win on election night. I largely agree with conventional wisdom that Paul will have a harder time winning a general election in Kentucky than his primary opponent Trey Grayson because of Paul's libertarian leanings. But on the other hand, Paul's anti-government, anti-spending, anti-Washington message will probably never be more in tune with the public's mood than in 2010. His path to victory will probably be a bit more challenging than Grayson's, but I still think his odds of winning against the Democrats are better than even.
5. Kentucky Senate Democratic Primary -- Moderate Democrat Daniel Mongiardo has led most of the way but at the end the more liberal Jack Conway has been closing in thanks to a large cash advantage and an advertising blitz. I am predicting a narrow Conway victory tonight. The Democratic establishment is supporting Conway and believes he is the more electable candidate in November, but I'm not so sure I share conventional wisdom. Conway's liberalism -- including his support for health care reform -- may not play so well in this conservative state where Obama is very unpopular. Conway may be well-funded and disciplined on the campaign trail, but he will be easy to tie to Obama and Pelosi and may help Paul consolidate his Republican establishment base effectively. I would prefer Mongiardo to win because I dislike Conway's liberalism and nasty campaign style, but a Conway win might actually be better for the GOP's prospects here in the fall.
6. Pennsylvania District 12 House Race -- Every indication is that this race is very tight, and special elections are notoriously hard to predict anyway. I have gone back and forth on this race, but in the end I think Democrat Mark Critz is going to beat Republican Tim Burns by a couple of points. This is a hard race for Burns to win because the district has twice as many Democrats as Republicans. Yes, I know that many of those Democrats are fairly conservative and I know that McCain won a very narrow victory over Obama here. Yes, I know Obama and his agenda are very unpopular in the district right now. But Obama is not on the ballot. Critz is, and he has very carefully positioned himself as a conservative Democrat who opposes the health care bill and cap-and-trade, as well as being pro-life and pro-gun. Democrats also have an advantage in this race that they will not have in November. The election is the same day as the primary, and the Democrats have a competitive Senate race while the Republicans do not. This will likely draw a lot of Democrats to the polls and will counteract the enthusiasm advantage the Republicans have. In the end, despite Obama's unpopularity, enough conservative Democrats in the district will choose a (supposedly) conservative Democrat over a conservative Republican to give Critz the win. Burns ran a great race, and even if he loses he may have a better chance of winning in November. A Democratic win here does not mean that Republicans will not do very well in the fall, but a Republican win here is a very bad sign for Democrats going into the fall elections. I hope I'm wrong, but I think the Democrats win this race.
In a few hours, we'll find out whether I know what I'm talking about....
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Wow...I'm surprised how accurate my predictions were. Lincoln narrowly finished ahead of Halter and faces a runoff; Boozman won the GOP primary outright; Sestak comfortably beat Specter; Paul crushed Grayson among KY Republicans; and Conway squeaked by on the Democratic side. The only prediction that was a little bit off was in PA-12. Democratic Critz won, as I predicted, but his margin of victory (8 points) was significantly larger than I expected.
I don't know how else to paint the GOP loss in PA-12 other than very disappointing. I did think the Democrats would probably win this race in the end for reasons I listed in the main post, but every poll showed the race very close. And while having a competitve Democratic Senate primary certainly helped to get Democrats to the polls, turnout really wasn't that high. Increased Democratic turnout due to the primary may have added 3 or 4 percentage points to Critz's total, but not 8 points. This is a tough loss for Republicans, and makes me question whether November 2010 will be as good for Republicans as I have been expecting up to this point.
BTW, Joe Sestak, the PA Senate nominee for the Dems, really is VERY liberal. Toomey may be able to link him Obama's unpopular agenda pretty effectively.
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