Election 2009

I know that some of my readers may not be that interested -- but I'm a political junkie and I can't let an election pass without making my predictions about the results. So here goes....

1. Virginia. This is the easiest one to predict. The Republican candidate for governor, Bob McDonnell, has run a very strong campaign and looks to be cruising to an easy victory over Democrat Creigh Deeds. Every poll taken over the past two weeks has shown McDonnell with a double-digit lead over Deeds, ranging from 10 points (Research 2000) to 19 points (Survey USA). Polls also show that the level of excitement and enthusiasm is much higher for McDonnell than for Deeds. In an off-year election, this will likely mean that McDonnell outperforms the polls -- energized conservatives will turn out in large numbers, while depressed Democrats are less likely to vote. I expect McDonnell will end up winning by at least 15 or 16 points, and maybe by as much as 20 points.

There are other races in Virginia as well, and Republicans should also fare well in those races. It seems likely that the GOP will win both the Lieutenant Governor & Attorney General races by comfortable margins. If McDonnell wins by double-digits, he will also sweep other down-ballot Republican candidates for the state legislature to victory. The GOP seems poised to pick up 4 or 5 seats in the House of Delegates -- and maybe even more.

Why this Republican sweep in Virginia? Remember, this once-solid Republican state has been trending Democratic in recent years, and Obama carried it by a significant margin just last year. Some of the blame for the strong swing back to the GOP this year has to go to Creigh Deeds, who was hardly a strong candidate. Deeds ran a relentlessly negative campaign and failed to present a positive agenda to the voters. He stumbled over his words in debates and interviews and flip-flopped badly on numerous issues. But I think the bigger reason for McDonnell's huge victory is widespread dissatisfaction and even anger against the hard-left agenda of Obama and congressional Democrats. Deeds' shortcomings as a candidate may explain why he is losing, but it by itself does not account for the huge margin of loss. Why are Republicans so energized? Why are so many moderates and independents supporting McDonnell? The reason is that they are dissatisfied with Democratic leadership in Virginia and Washington DC and want a change.

McDonnell's win is something worth celebrating. He, along with his fellow-Republican candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general, is a true conservative who has fought hard for the pro-life cause and for traditional family values. He is a strong believer in individual freedom, limited government, and lower taxes. And he is a gracious candidate who reaches out to moderates.

2. New Jersey. This state's governor's race is much harder to predict because it is much closer than Virginia's. Up until a couple of days ago, I thought Democrat Jon Corzine was going to win this race. But it does look like the GOP candidate Chris Christie has a bit of momentum right now. The most recent polls have shown him slightly ahead and gaining ground, and it does seem like late-deciding voters are unlikely to vote for the highly unpopular incumbent Corzine.

I am very reluctant to pick Christie as the winner though, because the Democratic organization in New Jersey is so strong. No Republican has won any state-wide race here since 1997 when Christie Todd Whitman, a liberal Republican, was narrowly re-elected governor. Corruption and dirty tricks are very common here, and labor unions and political bosses have their way of getting "their people" to the polls, legally or otherwise. The Democrats are launching a huge get-out-the-vote effort on behalf of Corzine, and Obama was in the state yesterday campaigning. Corzine has outspent Christie by about 3 to 1, and much of that money has been spent on nasty personal attacks designed to increase Christie's negatives. Even with all that, however, Corzine continues to have extremely high negatives -- close to 60%.

I am very hesitantly picking Christie to squeak out a win -- probably by one or two points -- over Corzine, with independent Chris Daggett finishing a very distant third with no more than 5 or 6 percent of the vote. The Democratic ground game and party machinery will be worth at least a couple of points on election day, but I now think that Christie's support among independents and a strong turnout of angry, motivated conservatives will be enough to put him over the top. I do not expect Republicans to gain much, if anything, in the NJ state legislature.

Christie is not a perfect candidate who has not presented a lot of positive ideas, and it's unlikely he will be able to accomplish much as governor with a heavily Democratic legislature working against him. Still, he is more conservative than the typical New Jersey Republican, and his victory is likely to have symbolic significance this year. Obama has spent a lot of time in New Jersey lately and is expending a lot of political capital on a Corzine win. If Corzine were to lose in one of the most Democratic states in the country, it would be a big embarrassment for Obama and could be interpreted as a repudiation of his agenda. Also, it would mean a GOP sweep of the 2009 governors' elections, which would give the Republican momentum going into the 2010 elections and might scare some moderate Democrats who are on the fence about ObamaCare.

3. NY-23 Congressional Race. This is a special election for a U.S. Congress seat in upstate New York that was vacated when the Republican congressman who occupied it for 16 years resigned from Congress to take a post in the Obama administration. I posted earlier about how the Republican party chose liberal state assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava as their nominee, and conservatives revolted and rallied around the Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman. For awhile, this looked to be a very interesting three-way race. Then, Scozzafava began to fade in the polls as more and more Republicans and independents began to defect to support Hoffman. On Saturday, Scozzafava quit the race and endorsed the Democrat, Bill Owens.

There has been quite a bit of polling done on this race, but polling is notoriously inaccurate for congressional races, so it's hard to know how much the numbers can be relied on. The two most recent polls are showing Hoffman leading Owens, but one of them is showing Hoffman with only a five point lead with nearly 20% of voters undecided.

It is hard to know how much of an impact Scozzafava's endorsement of Owens will have on the race. It seems likely to me that more of her supporters will vote for Owens than for Hoffman, and a lot of liberal organizations are pouring money into Owens' campaign in the final days. Still, conservatives are energized and are likely to turn out in large numbers to vote for Hoffman. Considering that turnout is likely to be low and that this is a conservative-leaning district that has a history of voting for Republicans, I think it is reasonable to pick Hoffman as the winner. But Owens may have some momentum coming out of the weekend, so I'm guessing this election will also be close. I'm guessing that Hoffman wins by 3 or 4 points, but I'm hardly sure about this prediction.

4. Other Races. There are a couple of other races happening this year as well. In the New York City mayoral race, Republican incumbent Michael Bloomberg looks likely to win a 3rd term, although his Democratic opponent is making it fairly competitive. And there is a special Congressional election in California that has gotten very little attention. It is a strongly Democratic-leaning district, but the Republican has run a spirited campaign and may have an outside chance at an upset victory if turnout is low and anti-government sentiment is high. I would not rule out a Republican victory here, but in the absence of accurate polling, conventional wisdom would have to favor a Democratic win. Look for this race to be close though.

To summarize -- I anticipate that Election 2009 will be a big night for Republicans, and the headlines do not bode well for Obama and the Democrats in Congress as we look forward to the big congressional elections of 2010.