Election 2009 Results

So, Election 2009 is in the books, and I'm 2 for 3 in my predictions. Overall, it was a pretty good night for the GOP, but unfortunately the result in NY-23 gives Democrats the chance to spin the election as a repudiation of "right-wing extremists." I was pleased -- and a bit surprised -- at the margin of victory in Virginia & New Jersey, but the New York results soured my evening a bit.

I think it's easy to overlook the significance of the Virginia results, since they were widely anticipated. Yes, we all knew McDonnell was going to win, but his final margin of victory is pretty impressive by anybody's standards -- nearly 18 percentage points. The last time Virginia elected a governor by that wide of a margin was 1961! Republicans also won the lieutenant governor & attorney general races by wide margins, and have apparently picked up five seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. Remember, Obama carried Virginia by about 6 points in 2008, so we are talking about nearly a 25-point swing from Democrat to Republican in just one year. Remember, McDonnell is an unapologetic conservative who took direct aim at Obama's policies during the campaign. Exit polls showed a significant majority of voters thought that the government was becoming too powerful and needed to reduce its role in society. And significantly, independents broke for McDonnell over Deeds by a 2 to 1 margin -- the same independents who supported Obama in 2008. At least part of Deeds' loss can be attributed to a weak campaign, but it's very hard to argue that Obama's left-wing, big-government policies had no effect on this race. A purple state moving into the red category in such a big way clearly reflects a changing political climate that could bode poorly for Democrats in 2010. All Democrats in Congress who represent districts that supported McCain or narrowly supported Obama should take note of the Virginia results and reconsider their support for ObamaCare.

Chris Christie's 4.5% margin of victory was also impressive and a bit of an upset to conventional wisdom, although I think it has fewer national implications than the Virginia race. The overriding issue in this campaign was the inept and corrupt administration of Jon Corzine. It's very hard to win re-election when your job disapproval rating is hovering near 60%, even in a state very friendly to your party. New Jersey voters remain favorably disposed toward Obama, but they finally had enough of Corzine's out-of-control spending and taxation and cronyism. Still, conservatives can rejoice that New Jersey has a conservative as their new governor. Christie is more conservative than previous New Jersey GOP governors like Christie Todd Whitman and Tom Kean, and we can hope that he will do something to at least stem the tide of corruption and left-wing ideology in the state's government. And let's face it -- the New Jersey results were a real embarrassment to Obama. Obama campaigned hard for Corzine on multiple occasions and expended a lot of political capital trying to get out the Democratic vote in that state. The fact that his presence the final weekend of the campaign was unable to push Corzine over the top in the bluest of blue states, despite polls showing a dead heat, makes Obama look weak and ineffective. The fact that he joined himself at the hip with such a corrupt and ineffective governor makes him look foolish.

The biggest surprise and disappointment of the night for me was the result of NY-23. I knew the race was closer than a lot of pundits thought, and I sensed that Scozzafava's endorsement of Owens was swinging the momentum in the race, but I still felt like the Republican tilt of the district and grassroots enthusiasm would push Hoffman over the top. I was wrong. Did Scozzafava's 5% vote total keep Hoffman from winning? I guess we'll never know, but I still question whether very many of those votes would have gone to Hoffman. This is a disappointing race to lose, because it is a swing district that supported Obama in 2008, and a conservative win here would really have forced Democrats in Congress to take notice. I think this loss gives cover to congressional Democrats and gives them a chance to argue that unelectable right-wing extremists are taking over the party. Perhaps it shows that the anti-Obama tide is not as strong as conservatives would like to think right now. But I also think that this race was very unique and may not necessarily portend anything significant for 2010. In retrospect, it seems like a big issue that Hoffman did not have strong roots in the district. Apparently he was perceived as a johnny-come-lately whose campaign was funded by deep pockets outside of the district, running against two candidates who are upstate New York natives. It certainly hurt Hoffman that Scozzafava, the Republican, endorsed the Democrat and vigorously campaigned for him in the final days of the campaign. And let's face it -- the press is really overstating the conservatism of NY-23. The district has clear Republican tendencies, but not necessarily conservative tendencies. New York Republicans tend to be well to the left of national Republicans. And let's not forget how badly the national Republican party fumbled this race, donating $900,000 to Scozzafava's campaign, some of which was used to attack Hoffman. The real reason the Republicans lost this race was because they nominated such a bad GOP candidate in the first place. Hoffman could have won if he had been the Republican nominee in the first place.

One other note: Maine voted down a gay marriage law. This is significant because Maine is a socially liberal state, and supporters of traditional marriage were outspent by a 10 to 1 margin. National gay rights groups targeted Maine as a state friendly to their agenda and went all out to win. So far, not a single state has voted in favor of gay marriage. Gay marriage has been defeated at the ballot box even in liberal states like California and Maine. I'm sure gay activists will keep trying, but the election results this year show that the public continues to oppose their radical agenda, at least for now.

Now we have to hope that the results of this election will help to defeat ObamaCare.