I was very surprised by this pick. I felt quite sure that Romney would make a "safe" choice -- one that would be fairly vanilla and non-controversial. This is because I have felt from the beginning that Romney wanted to coast to victory as the default candidate and felt he could win simply by keeping the focus on Obama's awful economy. Well, I was wrong. Paul Ryan is a "big risk, big reward" type of choice. By picking Ryan, Romney seems to be sending a message that he wants to run an ideas-driven campaign and make this election a stark choice between two visions for the country.
Several cons could be mentioned about Ryan -- he doesn't clearly deliver any state to Romney, he has never won a statewide election, and he like Romney is not overly charismatic. But by far the biggest reason Ryan is a risky choice is because of the budget plans that Ryan has spearheaded in the House. These budgets are the first serious attempt anyone in Washington has made to combat the runaway growth of entitlement spending and to reform programs like Medicare, and they make Ryan an easy target for demagoguery. Democrats now have an opportunity to take the attention away from Obama's dismal record by running Mediscare ads 24/7 targeting seniors. Democrats have had success with this strategy in the past -- most notably in 1995-1996. Seniors are the most reliable voting bloc in the country and comprise an large percentage of voters in several key swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania. If the Democrats are able to convince a significant number of them that Romney & Ryan want to take away their Medicare, then Obama has a clear path to victory despite his poor job approval numbers. That is why so many Democrats expressed glee over Romney's choice and started attacking him even before he was officially announced.
The good news is that the truth is on the side of the GOP on this issue. The facts are that the 2012 Ryan budget, which Romney has endorsed, does not take away anyone's Medicare. No one age 55 or older will be affected at all by the Medicare reforms, and those under age 55 are guaranteed the same health coverage at no extra cost to them under this plan. The plan's cost savings come not from making future Medicare recipients pay more out of pocket for their coverage, but rather from unleashing the power of free market competition into the Medicare system. The only risk associated with Ryan's plan is the risk that it may not reform Medicare enough to completely avert a debt crisis. There can be no debating that it is better than the status quo. Yuval Levin has an outstanding article on National Review's website explaining exactly what Ryan's plan proposes with regard to Medicare and why it is such a good idea. I highly recommend it.
The Democrats are simply lying about Ryan's plan. They have no plan to save Medicare and control entitlement spending. In fact, their beloved ObamaCare raids $700 billion from Medicare. They have no solution themselves, so they are going all in to demagogue a very good solution by the Republican team. The good news is that Romney and his supporting PAC's are flush with cash and should be able to at least match and probably exceed Obama's level of spending over the final two and a half months of the campaign. Republicans have the ability to win this argument and absolutely must do so -- both to win the election and to save our country from a debt crisis. Romney's instincts have always been to play it safe, but he has no choice now but to fight back hard and to win this important debate on the issues.
There are plenty of upsides to having Paul Ryan as the Vice Presidential candidate. He is young and energetic, yet has plenty of experience in government. He helps to unite the Republican base around Romney, since he is a strong fiscal and social conservative. His working class background is a nice contrast to Romney, and he is well-liked on both sides of the aisle on Capitol Hill. Most importantly, Ryan is a brilliant and innovative thinker who understands the ins and outs of fiscal policy as well as anyone in Washington -- and can articulate his ideas very effectively. Here is a video of Ryan debating Obama at the White House health care summit that shows his impressive grasp of the important issues facing the country.
Perhaps George Will put it best when he said that Romney "chose a running mate whose seriousness about large problems and ideas underscores what the president has become — silly and small." Ryan is an intellectual heavyweight who will help Romney keep the focus of the campaign on the important issues of the economy, repealing ObamaCare, reforming entitlements, controlling spending, and reducing the deficit. Ryan helps to underscore that Obama and the Democrats have no serious plan with regard to the deficit and entitlements. Right now, Obama's team is overconfident. Their non-stop attacks on Romney and Ryan will backfire if Romney and his supporters can effectively communicate their positive vision for the country. If they play their cards right, the electorate will face a stark choice in November between a Republican ticket with real ideas to fix our economy and get our deficit under control and a Democratic ticket with a failed economic record and nothing to offer but blistering negativity. If the American people don't have the sense to reject Obama under those circumstances, then we deserve what we get.
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