This is probably something that only political junkies will find interesting, but here are my rankings for the 2010 competitive U.S. House races. Please note that due to the large number of seats in play and the very limited amount of public polling available, it is virtually impossible to predict all of these races accurately. Still, here is my perspective on the current state of the battle for the House, starting with Democratic-held seats.
Likely or Certain GOP Pickups:
1. Open (Bart Gordon) (TN-6)
2. Open (Charlie Melancon) (LA-2)
3. Open (Vic Snyder) (AR-2)
4. Open (Eric Massa) (NY-29)
Vulnerable Seats Leaning Toward the GOP:
1. Open (Dennis Moore) (KS-3)
2. Open (Brad Ellsworth) (IN-8)
3. Frank Kratovil (MD-1)
4. Harry Teague (NM-2)
5. Steve Driehaus (OH-1)
6. Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15)
7. Betsy Markey (CO-4)
8. Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)
9. Travis Childers (MS-1)
10. Open (Paul Hodes) (NH-2)
11. Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1)
12. Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL)
13. Open (Brian Baird) (WA-3)
14. Open (John Tanner) (TN-8)
15. Chet Edwards (TX-17)
16. Open (Marion Berry) (AR-1)
17. Debbie Halvorson (IL-11)
18. Tom Perriello (VA-5)
19. Dina Titus (NV-3)
20. Paul Kanjorski (PA-11)
21. Open (Joe Sestak) (PA-7)
22. Mark Schauer (MI-7)
23. John Boccieri (OH-16)
24. Glenn Nye (VA-2)
25. Open (Bart Stupak) (MI-1)
26. Michael Arcuri (NY-24)
27. Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3)
Tossup Races - Slight GOP Edge:
1. Alan Grayson (FL-8)
2. Allen Boyd (FL-2)
3. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL)
4. John Spratt (SC-5)
5. Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-1)
6. Harry Mitchell (AZ-5)
7. Patrick Murphy (PA-8)
8. John Hall (NY-19)
9. Open (David Obey) (WI-7)
Tossup Races - Slight Democrat Edge:
1. Open (Alan Mollohan) (WV-1)
2. Baron Hill (IN-9)
3. Larry Kissell (NC-8)
4. Bill Foster (IL-14)
5. Bobby Bright (AL-2)
6. Jim Marshall (GA-8)
7. Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8)
8. Leonard Boswell (IA-3)
9. Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23)
10. Steve Kagen (WI-8)
11. Jerry McNerney (CA-11)
12. Chris Carney (PA-10)
13. John Salazar (CO-3)
14. Zack Space (OH-18)
15. Ike Skelton (MO-4)
16. Tim Bishop (NY-1)
17. Ron Klein (FL-22)
18. Scott Murphy (NY-20)
19. John Adler (NJ-3)
20. Phil Hare (IL-17)
21. Joe Donnelly (IN-2)
Vulnerable Seats Leaning Toward the Democrats:
1. Walt Minnick (ID-1)
2. Rick Boucher (VA-9)
3. Martin Heinrich (NM-1)
4. Betty Sutton (OH-13)
5. Bill Owens (NY-23)
6. Open (Bill Delahunt) (MA-10)
7. Mark Critz (PA-12)
8. Gerry Connolly (VA-11)
9. Ben Chandler (KY-6)
10. Kurt Schrader (OR-5)
11. Lincoln Davis (TN-4)
12. Heath Shuler (NC-11)
13. Gary Peters (MI-9)
14. Loretta Sanchez (CA-47)
15. Jim Himes (CT-4)
16. Rick Larsen (WA-2)
17. Ed Perlmutter (CO-7)
18. Tim Walz (MN-1)
19. Sanford Bishop (GA-2)
20. Charlie Wilson (OH-6)
Long-Shot Opportunities for the GOP:
1. Mike McMahon (NY-13)
2. Jason Altmire (PA-4)
3. Tim Holden (PA-17)
4. Christopher Murphy (CT-5)
5. Dan Maffei (NY-25)
6. Ron Kind (WI-3)
7. Melissa Bean (IL-8)
8. Dennis Cardoza (CA-18)
9. Nick Rahall (WV-3)
10. Bob Etheridge (NC-2)
11. Open (Patrick Kennedy) (RI-1)
12. Rush Holt (NJ-12)
13. John Yarmuth (KY-3)
14. John Barrow (GA-12)
15. Jim Matheson (UT-2)
16. Mike McIntyre (NC-7)
17. Jim Costa (CA-20)
18. Bruce Braley (IA-1)
19. Dave Loebsack (IA-2)
20. Michael Michaud (ME-2)
21. Carolyn McCarthy (NY-4)
22. Anthony Weiner (NY-9)
23. Raul Grijalva (AZ-7)
24. Steve Israel (NY-2)
25. Chellie Pingree (ME-1)
Now for the very few competitive Republican-held seats:
Likely Democratic Pickups:
1. Anh Cao (LA-3)
2. Open (Mike Castle) (DE-AL)
Tossup Races - Slight Democrat Edge:
1. Open (Mark Kirk) (IL-10)
2. Charles Djou (HI-1)
Vulnerable Seats Leaning Toward the GOP:
1. Open (Mario Diaz-Balart) (FL-25)
2. Dan Lungren (CA-3)
Long-Shot Opportunities for the Democrats:
1. Open (Parker Griffith) (AL-5)
2. Charlie Dent (PA-15)
All in all, that leaves us with a total of 8 competitive GOP seats, and a whopping 106 competitive Democratic seats. Right now, I have exactly 40 Democrat-held seats in the GOP column, while 4 Republican-held seats are in the Democratic column. That would be a net 36-seat gain for the GOP, three short of the number needed to take control of the House. However, I have an additional 21 Democratic-held tossup seats, many of which will likely end up going to the GOP on election night. I just don't know which ones yet! It seems quite likely the Republicans will end up with a net gain of at least 40-50 seats, given the large number of vulnerable Democratic incumbents whose challengers are still little-known.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
3 comments:
Probably nothing will come of it, but the possibility of upsetting Rep. Barney Frank is a delicious thought:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/A-GOP-unknown-is-in-striking-range-of-Barney-Frank-1063388-104114343.html#ixzz119yJkxY7
Haha Andrew -- that is a delicious thought. I read that article too. It is good that the GOP has landed a strong candidate here, and there's no question that Frank has a lot of skeletons in his closet. If the district were a little less liberal, then I would have some hope. The problem is that the district is heavily Democratic -- Obama got about 65% of the vote here. It is true that Scott Brown narrowly won the district too, so I suppose it is possible for a Republican to win. But I think it would be the longest of long shots. If the GOP wins this district, they are probably headed to at least an 80 seat pickup. Which is also a delicious thought -- but one that almost certainly won't happen, Dick Morris notwithstanding.
Post a Comment